All eyes on the CPI report coming out on Tuesday. This is a key report that the Federal Reserve considers when it comes to adjusting interest rates. And right after that, the FED meets on Wednesday to announce their next interest rate decision which is followed by the all important press conference. What does all this mean for Bitcoin? Price action is likely to go NO WHERE until the outcome of these events.
Do NOT make the mistake of thinking you know how the market will price in the outcomes. In this environment, these are BINARY events. Price can go one way or the other, or no where at all if there are no surprises or new pieces of information for the market to price in. This is where opinions can be VERY costly. If you are not in the market, it is best to WAIT until after the event is out of the way. The thing is, this week we have two major events back to back.
The problem with opinions is this: there is no way to know how exactly the market will react, and LOGIC (which is what everyone applies) is NOT effective in a market place that is primarily driven by emotions. For example, CPI may come out high but not as high as "expected" which can be a positive for the markets since it is in line with the Fed's raising rates at a slower pace. The point is, LET THE MARKET FIGURE IT OUT. The market knows all the information in the world, and is highly efficient.
Here is my swing trade plan for Bitcoin: AFTER both events are out of the way, I will be looking for short setups in the low 18Ks. If price happens to break through this area decisively, then I stand aside. While many may argue that Bitcoin is in a "bullish" trend, this only applies to very short time frames. Bigger picture continues to maintain a BEARISH structure. I have no intent to look for longs unless the 15K low is tested again, which is highly likely to break (especially in light of an unexpected catalyst).
Until these events unfold. Bitcoin (and the stock market) is NOT likely to go anywhere. Don't get caught into taking unnecessary action or trade just to trade in this highly uncertain situation. The 17K area is still near the mid point of the 15K to 18K broader lower high consolidation. Price action here is HIGHLY RANDOM.
While I still think it is too early to be taking any major positions for the longer time horizons, I do think it is a good time to build the investment plan. Bitcoin is going to be one of the instruments that I include in my forthcoming speculative growth portfolio which will be comprised of a variety of growth stocks and possibly select alt coins.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
Investor Psychology - Not Just Another Crypto Air Pocket
The big market story of November 2022 was the sudden “epic unraveling” of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. It fits a long history of post-peak reversals among exchanges. The speed and depth of FTX’s collapse are vitally important, as it foreshadows the character of the coming third-wave decline in stocks. Many observers have drawn comparisons to other infamous corporate frauds in the wake of the dot-com mania peak in 2000 and the housing bubble peak of 2006-2007. The two most compelling comparisons are to Enron, an energy trading company that went bankrupt in December 2001, and Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, which dissolved in December 2008 when its founder Bernie Madoff admitted to fraudulently misrepresenting client returns for at least 17 years. Like FTX, both firms were trading enterprises that were considered modern-day wonders of financial engineering. All three were built around leaders who burnished reputations as clever financiers through the peak of their respective bull markets. At a gain of more than 374%, Enron stock’s three-year rise into September 2000 reflected this status. By the standard of the final Grand Supercycle highs of 2021-2022, however, it was a piker. The bottom two graphs on the chart show the surge in the price of tokens issued by FTX and Crypto.com. In less than a year, they rose more than 2200% and 1570%, respectively.
read more...
simplejoe1
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with marc you'll miss a lot of breakout homerun moves but at least you won't strike out and go broke.
Arm_27
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@simplejoe1, since i adopt his teaching I have saved myself allot of pain for smaller gain :) Safety first!
MBM_Crypto
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Waiting for 13. December surely! Definitely gonna be interesting. We should expect some volatility. Here’s what I’m thinking:
Tradersweekly
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Thanks for sharing. We are watching the range between 16 800$ and 17 250$.
Lekis
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Thank you for your vision!
JoeChampion
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Good view
DemoDiaryFX_Trading
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thank you for your work! For me BTC is just bearish
f4taL1ty
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Perfect job
Arm_27
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Thanks for your analysis, and going over your course again you are an excellent teacher!!
The big market story of November 2022 was the sudden “epic unraveling” of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. It fits a long history of post-peak reversals among exchanges. The speed and depth of FTX’s collapse are vitally important, as it foreshadows the character of the coming third-wave decline in stocks. Many observers have drawn comparisons to other infamous corporate frauds in the wake of the dot-com mania peak in 2000 and the housing bubble peak of 2006-2007. The two most compelling comparisons are to Enron, an energy trading company that went bankrupt in December 2001, and Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, which dissolved in December 2008 when its founder Bernie Madoff admitted to fraudulently misrepresenting client returns for at least 17 years. Like FTX, both firms were trading enterprises that were considered modern-day wonders of financial engineering. All three were built around leaders who burnished reputations as clever financiers through the peak of their respective bull markets. At a gain of more than 374%, Enron stock’s three-year rise into September 2000 reflected this status. By the standard of the final Grand Supercycle highs of 2021-2022, however, it was a piker. The bottom two graphs on the chart show the surge in the price of tokens issued by FTX and Crypto.com. In less than a year, they rose more than 2200% and 1570%, respectively.
read more...