Happy New Year to everyone reading this price analysis!
We’re going to start 2019 off right by diving into a fresh new Bitcoin price analysis.
So, let’s begin.
So, in the chart above there are a few things to note:
1. The green dotted line represents the price’s overhead resistance. This was a major support point for Bitcoin (for a number of reasons that we’ve discussed in prior price analyses.
2. Once the price dropped below this resistance point, it then re-tested this overhead resistance before ultimately dropping down to $3.2k, then retesting the overhead resistance at roughly $4.3k again (which it failed to break).
3. Since then, the price has drawn down ever so slightly and it now appears to be in consolidation.
Relative Strength Index(14) for Bitcoin
I wanted to jump right into the RSI(14) for Bitcoin on the daily resolution because there’s an interesting uptrend in the RSI(14) that’s been taking place over the last few weeks.
Check out the chart below:
In the chart above, we can see that the RSI(14) has been steadily increasing for Bitcoin since December 20th.
To translate this in the rawest way possible, this means that Bitcoin has been consistently posting gains on the daily resolution, or the gains that it has posted have far outstripped that of the losses.
When the RSI(14) first began to rise, we can tell that this was the case because of the major positive divergence that we saw between the RSI(14) and price action:
This usually is taken to be a sign of impending bullish price action. However, we have not seen such.
In my opinion, this speaks volumes about the the overall volatility (which we’ll look into in the next section).
With a current RSI(14) value of 49.18, its definitely far from being overextended.
However, with the overhead resistance we mentioned earlier providing a serious impediment to Bitcoin’s price action continuing to rise, it is difficult for us to gauge future price action by solely looking at the RSI(14) on the daily resolution.
So, let’s go ahead and switch to a smaller time frame to see if we can detect any underlying trends.
RSI(14) on the H12 Resolution
We rarely use the H12 resolution, but with Bitcoin’s current price action, it feels a bit more fitting.
Its also not such a reduction in the time frames that we won’t be able to extrapolate the analysis to days in the future.
Check it out below:
The RSI(14) here does not look good.
Since we halved the time frame, this would essentially equate to the RSI(7) on the daily resolution, which accounts for the last 7 days, rather than the last 14 days.
Even still, we can’t make any definitive conclusions about the RSI here (on either resolution/lookback period), other than the fact that Bitcoin is exhibiting some very weak buy pressure currently.
Ichimoku Reading
For the record, the Ichimoku settings that I will be using here are the default ones and yes, they do work with crypto.
The Ichimoku on the H12 resolution doesn’t really give us any helpful information either.
We can see that the price has managed to crack through the cloud, but just barely.
However, the conversion line has crossed below the base line, which is the classic ‘sell signal’ for the Ichimoku. It appears that there is some level the divergence between the two lines that has occurred since then as well.
Zerononcense Double Guppy
Surprisingly, this indicator reflects that the price is surprisingly close to an overextension on the bull side of things.
Check it out below:
Conclusion
There’s a lot more that we could get to here when it comes to Bitcoin, but I’m just not seeing anything that’s definitive (in the short-term) to be honest.
I’m going to have to make this idea neutral. Until there’s more price action, I have absolutely no inkling as to what may happen. If I were in a position (short or long), I’d probably leave until I get a better idea of what’s going on and, of course, if I were not already in one, then I’d refrain from entering one.
Given the consolidation, ambiguity of the signals, traded range that Bitcoin has adhered to over the past few days, and the low volume (we didn’t get to it, but that’s a thing to consider as well), Bitcoin is looking like a firm wait at this point.
We’re going to start 2019 off right by diving into a fresh new Bitcoin price analysis.
So, let’s begin.
So, in the chart above there are a few things to note:
1. The green dotted line represents the price’s overhead resistance. This was a major support point for Bitcoin (for a number of reasons that we’ve discussed in prior price analyses.
2. Once the price dropped below this resistance point, it then re-tested this overhead resistance before ultimately dropping down to $3.2k, then retesting the overhead resistance at roughly $4.3k again (which it failed to break).
3. Since then, the price has drawn down ever so slightly and it now appears to be in consolidation.
Relative Strength Index(14) for Bitcoin
I wanted to jump right into the RSI(14) for Bitcoin on the daily resolution because there’s an interesting uptrend in the RSI(14) that’s been taking place over the last few weeks.
Check out the chart below:
In the chart above, we can see that the RSI(14) has been steadily increasing for Bitcoin since December 20th.
To translate this in the rawest way possible, this means that Bitcoin has been consistently posting gains on the daily resolution, or the gains that it has posted have far outstripped that of the losses.
When the RSI(14) first began to rise, we can tell that this was the case because of the major positive divergence that we saw between the RSI(14) and price action:
This usually is taken to be a sign of impending bullish price action. However, we have not seen such.
In my opinion, this speaks volumes about the the overall volatility (which we’ll look into in the next section).
With a current RSI(14) value of 49.18, its definitely far from being overextended.
However, with the overhead resistance we mentioned earlier providing a serious impediment to Bitcoin’s price action continuing to rise, it is difficult for us to gauge future price action by solely looking at the RSI(14) on the daily resolution.
So, let’s go ahead and switch to a smaller time frame to see if we can detect any underlying trends.
RSI(14) on the H12 Resolution
We rarely use the H12 resolution, but with Bitcoin’s current price action, it feels a bit more fitting.
Its also not such a reduction in the time frames that we won’t be able to extrapolate the analysis to days in the future.
Check it out below:
The RSI(14) here does not look good.
Since we halved the time frame, this would essentially equate to the RSI(7) on the daily resolution, which accounts for the last 7 days, rather than the last 14 days.
Even still, we can’t make any definitive conclusions about the RSI here (on either resolution/lookback period), other than the fact that Bitcoin is exhibiting some very weak buy pressure currently.
Ichimoku Reading
For the record, the Ichimoku settings that I will be using here are the default ones and yes, they do work with crypto.
The Ichimoku on the H12 resolution doesn’t really give us any helpful information either.
We can see that the price has managed to crack through the cloud, but just barely.
However, the conversion line has crossed below the base line, which is the classic ‘sell signal’ for the Ichimoku. It appears that there is some level the divergence between the two lines that has occurred since then as well.
Zerononcense Double Guppy
Surprisingly, this indicator reflects that the price is surprisingly close to an overextension on the bull side of things.
Check it out below:
Conclusion
There’s a lot more that we could get to here when it comes to Bitcoin, but I’m just not seeing anything that’s definitive (in the short-term) to be honest.
I’m going to have to make this idea neutral. Until there’s more price action, I have absolutely no inkling as to what may happen. If I were in a position (short or long), I’d probably leave until I get a better idea of what’s going on and, of course, if I were not already in one, then I’d refrain from entering one.
Given the consolidation, ambiguity of the signals, traded range that Bitcoin has adhered to over the past few days, and the low volume (we didn’t get to it, but that’s a thing to consider as well), Bitcoin is looking like a firm wait at this point.
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Twitter = twitter.com/librehash
Website = librehash.org
GIt = git.librehash.com
Docs = docs.libreahsh.com