Hello fellas, welcome back to our analysis about bitcoin here. let's make it quick, clear and professional as usual.
If you've seen my previous analysis about bitcoin and the potential descending triangle to form, you will absolutely see that yesterday's daily candle has broken down the lower line of the triangle which could make some people think that it was the time to enter short. But, today as well, you can see the price has claiming back the previous support line which is the lower line of the descending triangle. If you've studied my 3 phases of break out strategy, you wouldn't enter the short position at that time, this was because when the price broke down the support, it was just the 1st phase of break out and the 2nd phase of break out hasn't showed a confirmation to open short position yet!
Now, let's talk about the psychology behind this descending triangle pattern. Let's see it with logical thinking here, Imagine that the bears are trying to push down the price to break down the key support, it will make a consistent lower high that when we connect them, they will become the resistance trend line. But, during this pressure from the bears, the bulls simply just defending the price right at the key support. we can say that while the bears are gaining strength, the bulls is losing strength as well. On today's bull candle, I really think that it is very normal while the price is moving in this particular level, there might be a lot of trap during this consolidation stage!
In my opinion, I am still neutral with current bitcoin condition and we have to admit that the price is moving just inside the descending triangle. If it can break out of current descending triangle, I will simply open a long position and targeting the fibonacci levels as well for my take profit region.
My criteria for long will be :
1) The price breaks up of the resistance trend line
2) We see a shifting on MACD histogram to the positive side on daily chart
3) Confirmation on divergence on RSI
My criteria for short will be :
1) The price breaks down of the $8000 region which act as a key support
2) I see a histogram significantly down ticking for MACD
3) See my previous analysis for the targeting area when short is in play
I believe there will be a pretty surprising moves from bitcoin, but I don't see the bullish rally will start very soon. I will be targeting the golden pocket region which is around $9500 as the MAXIMUM the price can go before further melt down to the lower region of this period!
If you've seen my previous analysis about bitcoin and the potential descending triangle to form, you will absolutely see that yesterday's daily candle has broken down the lower line of the triangle which could make some people think that it was the time to enter short. But, today as well, you can see the price has claiming back the previous support line which is the lower line of the descending triangle. If you've studied my 3 phases of break out strategy, you wouldn't enter the short position at that time, this was because when the price broke down the support, it was just the 1st phase of break out and the 2nd phase of break out hasn't showed a confirmation to open short position yet!
Now, let's talk about the psychology behind this descending triangle pattern. Let's see it with logical thinking here, Imagine that the bears are trying to push down the price to break down the key support, it will make a consistent lower high that when we connect them, they will become the resistance trend line. But, during this pressure from the bears, the bulls simply just defending the price right at the key support. we can say that while the bears are gaining strength, the bulls is losing strength as well. On today's bull candle, I really think that it is very normal while the price is moving in this particular level, there might be a lot of trap during this consolidation stage!
In my opinion, I am still neutral with current bitcoin condition and we have to admit that the price is moving just inside the descending triangle. If it can break out of current descending triangle, I will simply open a long position and targeting the fibonacci levels as well for my take profit region.
My criteria for long will be :
1) The price breaks up of the resistance trend line
2) We see a shifting on MACD histogram to the positive side on daily chart
3) Confirmation on divergence on RSI
My criteria for short will be :
1) The price breaks down of the $8000 region which act as a key support
2) I see a histogram significantly down ticking for MACD
3) See my previous analysis for the targeting area when short is in play
I believe there will be a pretty surprising moves from bitcoin, but I don't see the bullish rally will start very soon. I will be targeting the golden pocket region which is around $9500 as the MAXIMUM the price can go before further melt down to the lower region of this period!
