so with the current wedge/crown/etc formation - 2 potential options 1)up through into the old trendline and away or down (and back up again)
bear in mind the down (if the gartney pattern completes) is a _Bullish_ pattern so both end well in the end
the moment i click the publish button it is likely everything will be invalidated by e.g. apocalypse, aliens, cosmic rays so take everything with a pinch of salt as its all made up, im not an expert, and this just speculation not investment advice etc
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At this point thinking neither of these feels quite right. Either is the extreme. Big fall makes sense and fits, while sense says down, this is a bubble. So another third option would be a middle ground I.e. fall on Tuesday back to e.g. 4000 then up again painfully slowly and neutral looking but steady upward action leaving doubt. Overall has been neutral for so long it's likely a stealth bull run that keeps the bears money off the table and causes it to keep rising slowly until they capitulate and a very large rise. We'll have an answer next week or so either way as slow upwards will reach the old ath and moment of truth.
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Failure at 5k would be the end though I think. Too much like 2014, and bound to be fud factor (china/regulation/icon/exchange/tether/etc). Up or down is better :-)
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Predictably shorts are piling in. So potential squeeze imminent
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Just watched video of Tom Demark (td sequential inventor). Well worth a watch. In it he talked about a method he discovered...
Take the top trend line in downtrend. After reversal take the lowest bar and calculate difference between trend line and lowest point. Add this difference to trend line amount at breakout, and you have your target. For the last drop in bitcoin on bitfinex - (done from my mobile so inaccurate (4353-2980) + 3822= 5201
Interesting, and even more so as I'm testing the indicator chart which (unless reset) is on 7 today so may show a sell on Tuesday. So based on that pullback to reset indicator (as per original chart below) then surge up to new ath at 5200. Curious to whether that will invalidate gartley formation - one for tomorrow.
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So sell indicator activated with a 9 today on the daily. Every time in the past this has been followed by a big fall. Fall should occur between 9 and 23 days. All around 40% retracement except one. The one smaller exception didn't fall till 13 days. So a push upwards before the weekend possible.
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Looking less likely though for reasons below and also 5 impulses and extended in this last rally.
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So still in the purple triangle, although depth of triangle should be adjusted for the shallow pullback following the 9. So assuming it breaks 4500 (still some resistance to go) next target around 4800 (for bullish gartley) or 5200 (point of triangle. Currently this is 5th obvious daily grah impulse, so expecting biggish pullback following peak.
In the weekly tonight 2nd candle of 9/13 upwards unless somehow it drops to 4220. Theory but gold cross on the daily definitely adding to bullish signs
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On the bearish side, still identical pattern to failed upwards movement following ath in June. This also had positive td indicator that flipped then flipped back following by large correction...
Thanks. Less is sometimes more (regarding frequency of updates). Regards.
Miru84
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Hi,
What is looking less likely? Your last comment. Sorry, but I did not understand what is looking less likely :)
danielpugh
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@Miru84, normally a fall after 9 between 9 and thirteen days. The fall was limited and (td) indicator flip. So up on the thirteen/Saturday/yesterday. So now a matter of how far this 5 impulse upwards goes.
1st to break 4500, and then push through to ath before running out of steam. Depending when/where it breaks a bigger pullback.
danielpugh
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@Miru84, mostly curious if it goes higher on 5200 target calculated via TD which matches the point of the purple triangle above. Some way to go to get there first..
danielpugh
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@Miru84, if you take the 1st wave height and assume 5th similar it fits roughly when adding to last smaller mini correction.
Interesting in parallel that the rises are all short squeezes. A lot of people shorting way too early and using margin. I have (and will never) short bitcoin, especially with margin. You need to be really experienced to do this. If you go long you are left with bitcoin that will go up at some point. With margin shorting you are left with debt (unless you are very good manage risk very carefully)...
danielpugh
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@danielpugh, on bitfinex 4000 bitcoin resistance between now and 4500. Total buy orders of 2000 combined. Volume is falling on daily and weekly. Tuesday would be a 9 on the TD indicator. Odds rising of some kind of downwards movement. I would say one more push higher and failure around 4500.