It has been a long time since I wrote a detailed description/write-up on bitcoin (you guys know I don't like long stories), however I want to guide as many people as possible through this market. Our goal here is to stay objective at all times, put your emotions aside and learn to buy when the market looks extremely weak and depressed or sell when it's better to take that profit or loss and expect further downfall.
To begin lets have a look at the past year, what milestones did we pass and where did this massive growth we have seen put us into awe.
From what I can see is the starting point or reversal point of the prior downtrend from 2013 bubble on 21 August 2015, this is where the bottom of the cup is and at that time bitcoin was hovering around a mere 200 USD. From there things became more interesting and people took notice again, especially those who already got in touch with bitcoin around 2013 or even longer-term holders. We headed from 200 USD back to our all-time high in 2013 around 1300 USD. On 4 January 2017 it hit 1100 plundge to 800 but recovered quickly then retested the all-time high at 1300 area fell down again to 950 and from there the cup broke out. This cup breakout is a pattern often used in trading and this new interested created a sustained trend with several larger shake-outs on the way to our current top of 19250 USD. We achieved this massive uprun, this growth and volume is nothing we have seen before anywhere else as far as I know, in a total of 850 days (or ~121 weeks) from out bottom of this 2013-2017 cup. Almost at 100x increase from the bottom, a great achievement and definitely shows that there is great interest in blockchains and cryptocurrencies in general.
Objectively speaking, some part of this massive growth/capital will be taken out as long-term holders liquidate and price trend looks to find an agreement with long-term moving averages. We can definitely agree that bitcoin has been a big hype, practically the whole world has heard about bitcoin and probably a few people you know also have invested into it. Bitcoin is a revolution, it definitely is, but expectation's versus real-life useage are too far apart at this moment. It takes time, reflection and acceptance from governments to push this to a new innovative world system where everyone can profit from. We don't want to overthrow banks, it would only destabilize global economies which would be bad for everybody. We do want to bring a clear message to our governments, banks and institutions; A new era has began, innovation/reflection will thrive and set aside the old systems which clearly show their flaws too, there's much to do!
This realization that there is much to do both for bitcoin as banks/governments shows that it is still in a development phase, technologically and politically speaking, but also psychologically bitcoin should not only be held for infinite growth and "store of value". Making some good money on this early adoption is great but eventually it has to stabilize and the volatility shouldn't create sleepless nights whether you're capital is making huge swings (up and down).
The best things for bitcoin in the future are being able to spend it in everyday life, in most (web-shops) like a credit card account, spending keeps the money rolling, makes it more attractive to use and will eventually find an equilibrium where it will get interesting for anyone to use it.
We will find an agreement over time and this happens with consolidation of price action. We broke a crucial level which is the 38.2% down retracement (~12000 USD) from the ATH and in my other chart "Bitcoin History of Price Crashes" this has been a crucial level for prior bitcoin bubbles. Monthly Stochastic RSI also show's that price is likely to head down more and the market sentiment has turned to a more bearish side now. Bitcoin is still confronted with legal bans from time to time, which has it's impact.
To begin lets have a look at the past year, what milestones did we pass and where did this massive growth we have seen put us into awe.
From what I can see is the starting point or reversal point of the prior downtrend from 2013 bubble on 21 August 2015, this is where the bottom of the cup is and at that time bitcoin was hovering around a mere 200 USD. From there things became more interesting and people took notice again, especially those who already got in touch with bitcoin around 2013 or even longer-term holders. We headed from 200 USD back to our all-time high in 2013 around 1300 USD. On 4 January 2017 it hit 1100 plundge to 800 but recovered quickly then retested the all-time high at 1300 area fell down again to 950 and from there the cup broke out. This cup breakout is a pattern often used in trading and this new interested created a sustained trend with several larger shake-outs on the way to our current top of 19250 USD. We achieved this massive uprun, this growth and volume is nothing we have seen before anywhere else as far as I know, in a total of 850 days (or ~121 weeks) from out bottom of this 2013-2017 cup. Almost at 100x increase from the bottom, a great achievement and definitely shows that there is great interest in blockchains and cryptocurrencies in general.
Objectively speaking, some part of this massive growth/capital will be taken out as long-term holders liquidate and price trend looks to find an agreement with long-term moving averages. We can definitely agree that bitcoin has been a big hype, practically the whole world has heard about bitcoin and probably a few people you know also have invested into it. Bitcoin is a revolution, it definitely is, but expectation's versus real-life useage are too far apart at this moment. It takes time, reflection and acceptance from governments to push this to a new innovative world system where everyone can profit from. We don't want to overthrow banks, it would only destabilize global economies which would be bad for everybody. We do want to bring a clear message to our governments, banks and institutions; A new era has began, innovation/reflection will thrive and set aside the old systems which clearly show their flaws too, there's much to do!
This realization that there is much to do both for bitcoin as banks/governments shows that it is still in a development phase, technologically and politically speaking, but also psychologically bitcoin should not only be held for infinite growth and "store of value". Making some good money on this early adoption is great but eventually it has to stabilize and the volatility shouldn't create sleepless nights whether you're capital is making huge swings (up and down).
The best things for bitcoin in the future are being able to spend it in everyday life, in most (web-shops) like a credit card account, spending keeps the money rolling, makes it more attractive to use and will eventually find an equilibrium where it will get interesting for anyone to use it.
We will find an agreement over time and this happens with consolidation of price action. We broke a crucial level which is the 38.2% down retracement (~12000 USD) from the ATH and in my other chart "Bitcoin History of Price Crashes" this has been a crucial level for prior bitcoin bubbles. Monthly Stochastic RSI also show's that price is likely to head down more and the market sentiment has turned to a more bearish side now. Bitcoin is still confronted with legal bans from time to time, which has it's impact.
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Please feel free to start a discussion, what do you think about bitcoin? What do you think the future holds, both positive and negative. Let's talk!
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Excuse me for any incorrect grammar or typo's, there are a few and I cannot change it afterwards, neither am I a native English speaker.
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I did find some optimism short-term, we are correcting too fast compared to 2013 and are probably seeing some 12K-14k again. This would be a long-term approach if we follow 2013.
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Wedge likely to break up soon
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Above 12100 gets interesting, possible upside to 13700.
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We are currently in the yellow triangle, if this one fails again, we descend in the lower channel, the yellow EW is a potential triangle wave with low TP of 8200 and 7400.
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Short-term we should be retracing a bit up.
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Here with fibs. We take ATH to first major wave down, then extension would structurally and ratio-wise find support around 7000-8700. Third wave tends to be a panic sell, beware.
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Target of 8000 hit, bulls in charge now!
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Bounced nicely on 38.2% (or 61.8% down) in interactive chart :)
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We hit the 1.618 extension from the first big bear-wave this is a point to close some shorts and scale in long.
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Price got all the way to hype-cycle retracement.
Trade active
Bull resistance: 12215, 14000, 15000, 16000, 16780, ATH
Bearish targets: 10000, 9300/9500, 8200, 7668, 7000, 6400, 5666