If we zoom out, from a historical time perspective (not taking any other technical analysis into consideration), I believe it's worthwhile and interesting to note that the bullish time intervals (from low to blow-off top) has extended each bull run by 300-400 days. If this pattern continues, we can expect to see the bull run last for the next couple of months, and a blow-off top to be observed between March and August 2022.
@reees, Indeed - I guess it depends on what you consider the previous cycle low historically, but significant probability of not seeing the top until between 2022 Q2 and Q3/Q4
reees
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@electricalTuna1995, for sure. there are a number of different ways to slice it. i chose to measure just "the bull run" from bottom to top, after price had retraced from the prior ATH and consolidated.
electricalTuna1995
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@reees, Agreed the only thing I would question is whether March 2020 is the true low or just an outlier due to the pandemic impact. Either way, no one is ever going to be able to hit the nail on the head in terms of predicting the top here. Will be interesting to see where we are mid to late 2022 :)
reees
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@electricalTuna1995, yeah i thought about that a lot. price was definitely already in an uptrend in march, but i decided that the action before then was still more in the "consolidation" category. same with the prior cycle, i started measuring the "bull run" after the uptrend had technically already begun. it also stands to reason that the consolidation phase leading into the bull market would go longer too (in proportion to the lengthening cycles), so that was a big factor in my decision. i.e. just as the bull runs grow longer, the space in between them grows longer as well.
not-shazeb
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@reees, @electricalTuna1995 , the march 2020 nuke resulted in a break of the HTF market structure, setting a lower high in february and a lower low in march, causing a complete reset of the trend. So i would agree with @reees that the "bullrun" started in march.
reees
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@not-shazeb, yeah but i guess the question really is whether or not the march 2020 crash is an anomaly that should be considered "noise". in any case, i think the best way to take the subjectivity out of it would be to measure as @electricalTuna1995 did, from bottom to top. or arbitrarily choose some other point, say .618 from the prior top or something like that
not-shazeb
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@reees, true dat true dat. I think its easy to write it off as noise in hindsight because it gave a V-shaped recovery, when in reality V-shaped recoveries after violent breaks in market structure are very rare occurrences. In hindsight we can call it noise, but at the time there was no guarantee that it would recover so quickly, so i would basically give it the “credit” it deserves for resetting a fresh uptrend, as it had to reclaim pretty much every support level lost from December 2018 bottom.
Fun fact: With regards to the point about setting less subjective criteria to it; Bitmex turned off their liquidation engine on 13th march 2020. Had they not, prices would probably have fallen lower than December 2018 bottom anyways. It was a fluke that we didnt set a new macro low that day.
not-shazeb
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but we may be talking past eachother, you are right that there should be a more objective method to measure the beginning of run
not-shazeb
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But on a serious note, BTC has become increasingly more dependant on the legacy markets in recent years, as more institutional money has entered the space. Correlation between BTC and SPX shot up during the last two bottoms (covid march + december 2018). BTC last two significant bull runs (2017+ march 2020 to May 2021) were done on periods where SPX was also making a significant run, with correlation extremely high during the entirety of the runs.
The last time BTC went up while stocks went down was back in 2016.
In fact, all the times they have decorrelated since 2016 is actually when BTC goes down or stays stagnant while stocks are the ones going up.
I think BTC will simply operate as a leveraged stock to the macro environment. It will move like a high risk asset - when people flee to cash it will take the hardest hits.