Please first refer to my related ideas for prerequisite information.
As aforementioned, a valid WXYXZ count (projected in March) has been completed and I became bull biased once 5 wave was in as we land on $5755. I attempted to long wave 3 of 3 (break above 6271, which got stopped out after the sharp drop to test 78xx again. Although it touched my invalidation line, we never broke below it, and that's why I remain bull biased, whilst giving credit to sellers. Should this become a successful and sustainable breakout, my previous long attempt at the $6271 level can be considered premature and we should look into lower TF to re-count the waves and look for a valid ABC formation that is wave 2.
It has been a very long time since we broke above the overhead resistance (black line). It was June 7th when we last broke out of the resistance, yet buyers failed to bring in volume and the price soon dropped below once again. For this to be a true breakout, we need a sustained rally with 2-3 consecutive green closes sitting comfortably above the black line.
But that is not all - the previous support (red line) has now become the resistance and buyers must once again push through that hurdle. In between, there are structural levels that buyers have to clear as well (around $6335 & $6860). It will be no easy task.
EW does allow technicians to predict future movements based on wave counts, but whether the analysis comes into fruition depends on how the market reacts to these critical levels. Hence the bad rep of EW - being subjective and hindsight bias at times.
The daily candle should close in about 45 minutes as I am writing this. The buyers should ideally defend the $6200 zone. If the sellers come in again and push for a close at $6100 (intersection of overhead resistance), we must become more cautious of this breakout.
Best case scenario, buyers clear the $6300 level by the end of the daily close. In which case, we can expect more violent moves to the upside in a short period of time.
If some catastrophic event happens and the daily closes 'below' $6100 levels or even $6000, I expect the $5755 level to be broken rather quickly. Although many people are calling for low 5K targets, I see no structural support until the low 3K range. That will indeed be a depressing event for the crypto space.
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The $6200 level is the medium channel resistance. This is a closeup so the chart doesn't get too messy.
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The daily candle (June 29th) closed right on channel resistance. Expecting more side way movements with sellers in control. Take care.
if you look at the overall inception from $1 to 19,850 or from the 2014 Low of $188 to $19,850, on the monthly chart, there is Fibonacci near 5K. This is the bounce most people are looking at.
As far as count goes, Monthly chart: $1 to $19850 (Wave 1), $19850 to 5K-ish (Wave 2), 5K-ish to 25K-ish or 32K-ish if it extends to 1.618 Fib.
Weekly Chart from 19K to 5K is the correction... ABC correction says 3K as you suggest if you go to the tip/outlier of the January Wick.
As far as count goes, Monthly chart: $1 to $19850 (Wave 1), $19850 to 5K-ish (Wave 2), 5K-ish to 25K-ish or 32K-ish if it extends to 1.618 Fib.
Weekly Chart from 19K to 5K is the correction... ABC correction says 3K as you suggest if you go to the tip/outlier of the January Wick.
Not sure which is correct but we will see