Butcher_of_Bitmex
Long

Long 11,150 to 13,750 Double Top

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As per my previous analysis we had a good stab at reaching a double top reaching into the low 13K's however we didn't quite pull off the top around 13,750-13,800 that I was hoping for. Luckily for us we are now printing a new fractal that looks like it could finally get us to our target. Long from 11,150ish on the second touch of the pink support line. Target is 13,750.

Stop 10,800.
Trade active: My entry for first long = 11,077. Stop loss has been moved to 11,110 for small profit in case of any surprises. Target 1 = 12,200 which is when I will be switching back to a short (12,200 to 11,300).

Comment: Bullish crossover of Fisher Transform should see us to our target area to close longs. We will hit the green dotted line first (around 12,175); before a minor retrace to around 11,975. We should then see a small leg up to somewhere around 12,300-12,400 which will form our local top. I have highlighted where this should be with the purple horizontal line; but will move it once we have confirmation (as it is difficult to determine exactly where a pattern will form before it has really even started to form - we just know it will form!).

Comment: Stops have also been moved slightly higher to 11,210 to lock in a bit more profit in case the pattern does fail.
Comment: Just had second touch of pink line which is a long signal. My previous entry was stopped out in profit. However I had buy orders set for 11,200-11,000 in 50 dollar intervals for an average entry point of just over 11,100. Stop loss is currently set for 10,950 and will be moved up to break even when we head a bit higher.
Comment: Note; something to be wary of here. Based on the structure it seems we might be working more with the smaller ascending triangle highlighted in the below screen shot. This does not affect the ultimate goal, however it does lower the short term profits if trading within the triangle. I might re-do this analysis depending on how the structure looks in the next hour or so. So just be mindful that I will start taking profits from my long entry at just over 11,100 at 11,800 and looking to ladder in shorts from 11,800 up to 12,100.
Comment: Also, forget to mention - stops have been moved into profit again 11,180 (from 11,100 entry) just in case the pattern fails. Geometric fractals are great to trade, however they can break without warning - so as soon as practicably possible it is a good idea to move stops to break even, then a bit of profit before letting them ride out. That way it is a win-win regardless of the outcome.
Comment: Yep, we are going for an intial top of 11,800 at the orange line before we retest the pink support line. I will keep this running perhaps, but will create a new analysis using this point as the triangle top.
Comment: Reached first take profit level. Shorts laddered in up to purple line just in case we go a bit higher. Regardless; we will soon find out exactly where our resistance line is. Short to bottom of triangle. It could go slightly lower than I have drawn; though we will find this out soon enough too!
Comment: My average entry is 11,910. Stops moved to break even. Placed a couple new short orders for 11,800 and 11,850 to increase my short position as we might have a little wick up before we go down further.
Comment: Stop moved to in profit 11,810
Comment: Stop moved to in profit 11,750 Not too much longer til we find the bottom support around 11,150-11,300. I will be swapping to longs at those levels.
Comment: Touch of triangle support. Switching back to longs laddered in from 11,150-11,300ish.
Comment: On the way up to the top!
Trade closed: stop reached: Stop Loss hit. Fractal Broken. Look for new set up.
Nice idea, but double top wont happened, a break of 14000 is more likely

In my idea I expect a break after some consolidation:

Reply
Butcher_of_Bitmex Free_Bitmex_Signals
@Free_Bitmex_Signals, It would be great if we did break 13,600 and there is a chance it can happen; though if it does I expect it will be a fake out and bull trap. In my view - everything is currently telling me we will see a double top but then we go down to $3K (perhaps slightly lower!) again before we actually enter the bull run that will take us to a new ATH. This actual bull run will not kick off until June 2020. So after the double top I will be shorting all the way back down! I am always open to changing my view as new information comes in; so this idea is not locked in stone but is most probably based on the TA and chart patterns I am seeing.
Reply
how you know all this? its like you have a chart from the future.
+2 Reply
i call 12k 12.5k, because if you break out of an ascending triangle its very bullish
Reply
thank you for finally posting a non spam (almost all posts were not legit today!) idea... Seems like your recent update is good
+1 Reply
If you hit the mark on this set up like the last set up, you will have to change your screen name from "butcher" to "prophet".
+4 Reply
plz check my share ideas on treading view
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Get Help Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Get Help Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out