Very nice - but I would be surprised if we reached as high as 200k I know many are touting even higher highs for this cycle. I think $115-130k max is more likely. Why? 2 reasons.
1) The 10-day log growth curve chart below has been an excellent predictor of market tops. It calls the top around $115-130k. Furthermore the recent correction between the 50% level and the 21-EMA was exactly what happen in 2017 (see purple arrow and circle!). Should have saw this coming but wasn't looking.
2) 10-day treasury bond rates. Is anyone studying this meaningfully? Will publish something soon. I'm a good 70% confident we're going to see interest rate rises during the 1st quarter - 2nd quarter of 2022. And I'm not talking quarter or half points here. I'm talking whole percentage points. Be without debt people. You've got 5-6 months.
If (2) happens, ANY overinflated asset, value stocks, housing, Bitcoin, it'll all crash and deflation will likely following. Just my 2 cents.
yozr23361
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@without_worries, very well sir. who is author of this indicator log growth curve?
without_worries
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@ali_1673, that would me... there's various adaptations out there, which is what mine is. It is not really a indicator as such, just the logarithm of price action since inception with Fib levels. The difference with my own to others is I'm only calculating significant price action paths, and is also designed to work best on the 10-day chart. Others use price action on the daily, but creates issues for me.
Here is on LIB, don't buy it though, you can write the script easily enough.
Thanks Ali but as I expected we were near the USDT channel and it went up sharply yesterday. So, the fear took place again and folks also remember what happened in May 2021 and it remained for 3 months. On the other hand, technically, it doesn’t suggest we go up. I told you, we reach 55k (which it hit around 54k) and we go down and it happened. Now the shadow in BTC reached to 43k should be filled. Generally I am still bearish. We go down more.
yozr23361
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@Ehsan_1982, yes sir everything possible, i follow your idea continusely. appreciate your comment
1) The 10-day log growth curve chart below has been an excellent predictor of market tops. It calls the top around $115-130k. Furthermore the recent correction between the 50% level and the 21-EMA was exactly what happen in 2017 (see purple arrow and circle!). Should have saw this coming but wasn't looking.
2) 10-day treasury bond rates. Is anyone studying this meaningfully? Will publish something soon. I'm a good 70% confident we're going to see interest rate rises during the 1st quarter - 2nd quarter of 2022. And I'm not talking quarter or half points here. I'm talking whole percentage points. Be without debt people. You've got 5-6 months.
If (2) happens, ANY overinflated asset, value stocks, housing, Bitcoin, it'll all crash and deflation will likely following. Just my 2 cents.