hdon94
Short

BTC - My Bearish Outlook

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Okay, this is my bearish scenario for BTC             , I already published my bullish outlook. I know, these are about as polar opposite as an outlook could be but I just didn't want to publish a rainbows and unicorns view without at least showing
an alternative. It is also very possible that there could be a third possibility, something in between where BTC             just meanders in a more sideways pattern for an extended period (weeks or months).
In my opinion for this bearish outlook to play out, several things would have to happen first. We would first have to see BTC             break below my long-term trendline , followed by a drop to test the Feb. 6th             low, followed by a failure of
the Feb. 6th             low leading to a stair-stepped drop to a support level that finally holds, followed by an extended consolidation period.
I know this is a pretty dark view but I don't think it is out of the question, I like to acknowledge all possibilities.
What is your advice for those who bought in higher than the current market value? Especially these that bought in at 15,000 or above? That’s a pretty grim scenario for these people. Do they sell and try and buy lower to average out the buy-cost? Do they just hodl? I know you won’t offer financial advice, I’m asking for your opinion. I have a DCA buy-in of $11,500. Ironically, just at our most important resistance. My gut told me to sell at that break-even point- what would have been “selling high” in the current market frame. I failed to do that, because I felt we would push through... and now, here we are.

But hindsight is 20/20. Trying to figure out the best way for me to minimize loss from here out. I would like to be staring at red numbers for the shortest time possible.
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hdon94 TheGush
@TheGush, First off, please check out my bullish scenario, I don't want you to think my view is just doom and gloom. Because I just presented a bullish case I wanted to also present another extreme bearish possibility. As I have said before I have no idea where the price of BTC is going to go, in my opinion, anyone that says they know 100% for sure where the price of anything is going either has a crystal ball or they are delusional. All we can do is play the probabilities based on price action, what we believe the chart (price action) is trying to tell us.

With that said this is a really tough call, I guess it would depend on the persons need for the money or their investment time horizon. If they really need the money in the short term I suppose they could consider setting a stop loss price somewhere below the current price. Then if BTC drops to that stop price they could sell a portion, which is always hard to do because they are locking in a loss. But at least if they are still holding a portion and the price rebounds then takes off there is always the chance to offset the loss by the gains of the remaining position.
As I said it is a very tough call, if they sell everything here it could work out well if the price of BTC does continue to fall. But if they sell everything and the price takes off from here then they get into a position of locking in a loss then having to chase the price higher to buy back in which is never good.
For someone who has a long investment time horizon and doesn't really need the money, they could just continue to hold and use any price drops to build an even larger position.
My personal view on cryptocurrencies is still bullish long-term, I can't say that BTC will always be the king of cryptocurrencies so that is why I like to diversify into a wide range of coins and tokens.
I know that personally, whether the price goes up or down I will continue to add to my positions.
I have been reading quite a few articles about the Mt. Gox trustee selling off both BTC and BCH which I am sure has been putting downward pressure on prices, how long it continues is anyone's guess.
My hope would be that the trustee would find a different avenue to sell other than the open markets, like maybe an auction.
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TheGush hdon94
@hdon94, I saw an article that said he/she would hold the rest of God coin’s and not do anything with them until at least September. Not sure how legit that was or not.

For me, I do not need the money now, that’s why I am holding. I expect that at some point I will get my investment back and then some. It’s a good position to be in where you can just let your investment ride... and I do have more money to invest, and initially wanted to, but these current conditions make me super nervous.

Like right now ETH looks like a great deal around $700 or so- I would have killed for that buy in price again- but it’s a double edged sword. I’m both excited to see such a bargain price and I would throw in a lot more at what I believe to be a great price- but now there’s that doubt- ETH or LTC or BTC or whatever- what if I buy in here and it drops another 50%? Then I’m not only already 100% down but then I’d be 150% down plus another 50% down before I break even.

Certainly a tough call. I’m sure these current prices will seem amazing 6 months from now, but then again, I’m not sure!
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hdon94 TheGush
@TheGush, Yeah, I feel the same way, I am being cautious right now also. I have small weekly auto recurring buys through Coinbase and if there happens to be a large dip in the near future I will make some larger buys but other than that my plan is to slowly accumulate over a longer period of time.
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