NOTE: Please keep in mind that just because I have drawn particular line or suggested a target does not mean it will cause the price to follow that path exactly. I say this because many appear to have religious like zeal for BTCUSD to move forever upwards without any retracement where suggesting anything else is a gross sin. Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and anticipated "Halving" in July 2016, accepting that I don't really understand any of this nor can anyone say with certainty how it might impact the price this time round.
Analysis - This is an intermediate chart to the main one posted earlier (see link below) which outlined 4 possible outcomes. Price action to date for 2016 has been rather disappointing. If this worrisome price action is to be negated then breaking above 450 - 500 is very important. Till then the potential negative observations are: 1. Having spiked high in Nov 2015 it is in potentially LL & LH sequence. 2. It has failed at 78.6% Fib retracement of subsequent decline 300 low. 3. Also failed at upper parallel of the bearish Schiff Pitchfork . 4. Has now failed to break and hold above 1st Jan 2016 high fr the second time. 5. RSI failure at 70 and MACD about to turn down in series of LLs & LHs. 6. The price action since Nov spike high might be forming running flat. 7. Potentially major highs posted in Nov 2013, Nov 2014 and now Nov 2016 could be saying something unless we make a strong move to the upside very soon.
Conclusion: 1. For Bullish view it is now very critical that price holds above 400 - 380 which might support a minor bullish triangle. 2. Any weakness should hold above 300 zone in the proximity of rising channel line support. 3. below that is a potential retest of the Aug 2015 low.
Webinar: I am hosting a webinar on 26th February 2016 discussing various possible scenarios and what to look out for 2016/17 and other profitable opportunities. To attend please register at danv-charting.com/live-bitcoin-webinar.html
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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On the assumption that the move down would be a fourth, while disregarding everything else behind the view-able chart, I am sure anyone would agree with you.
RamaDeda
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Only time will tell us who will be right! Thanks For your comment!
Gekko.uk
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Impressive. What's the accuracy rate typically with EW?
DanV
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Sorry, I can't answer that as most EW analyst have different way of applying it and therefore the out come varies. So I just use it for my needs and express some of these idea here in my published charts. Some good, bad and ugly. It's all there. Thanks.
DanV
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UPDATE 26th April 2016: Previously we have all been anticipating a congestion triangle which many consider has given way to the upside move. However, with new price data it does not seem to support triangle pattern at all.
Yet, we have breached the 450 to the upside, a level often mentions important. It seems that unless we explode to the upside from here we might pull back to 450 - 440 zone before next leg higher as it could form a rising wedge (Ending Diagonal) which could complete a possible abc zigzag retracement of the Nov low with upside target in the region of 480 being a 88.6% retracement of the price drop from Nov High - Low.
If the price completes this zigzag in the manner described then it could offer excellent short opportunity upon completion. Till then the price action will remain choppy as swings get smaller and smaller to complete the wedge. Here is the chart with the details.
oldstout
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Well done. Very nice analysis with great explanation, details. Thanks for sharing. :)
Csys
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And let me ask a question: What is your experience with using MACD and RSI at the same time? I used to use MACD when I was a total beginner and then I left it, but I can give it a chance if it goes well with Stoch or RSI.
DanV
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Thankyou for your comment and question.
Regarding the indicator I mostly use RSI but will consider other sin they give better clarity or help to validate the analysis. I don use multiple indicators like we see on some charts. RSI is better for cyclical swings and is bound by scale of 0 - 100 hence some early divergence or confirmation is noted.
Whilst MACD do not have maximum upper or lower scale, so it could exhibits strong momentum where RSI divergence might either fail or will end up with multiple divergences. So really used in that manner could help avoid being whipsawed or wrong footed on strongly trending market.
In this instance we can see that MACD dipped below the zero line which is negative, then upon retracement rather then continuing to the upside above zero it appears to be stalling just above zero. So to me it seems to suggest that the more up was a retracement and not a new strong impulsive more to the upside. Therefore it is helping me to validate the RSI's failure at 70. To negate these we would require strong move to the upside soon otherwise it suggest potential weakness.