Today I would like to start with a quick overview from the last couple weeks. I am not one to toot my own horn, but it seems like that is the only way to gain credibility in this space.
5/28 was the last day that I was bullish. I recommended a short term buy at $7,250. That was based on how far the price was from the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the 4 hour and daily chart.
I turned bearish the next day because of the Ichimoku Cloud as well as the 50 week MA. Below is the weekly chart. I had been bullish since 4/6 due to the weekly cloud, support from the MA, overleveraged shorts and breaking the down trendline. Once that changed I was forced to join the bad news bears.
Due to the change in my outlook I immediately recommended to exit all bullish positions on the 29th and start preparing for a bearish entry. That was after a nice little pump and the price was trading above $7,400.
My gameplan was (and still is) to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leveraged short. I got out of all alts that were in profit or within 2% of breaking even.
On 6/9 I said to sell when the price of Bitcoin was trading above $7,600. By that time I was fully positioned and patiently waiting for the breakdown of the triangle.
I sold ¼ of my BTC at an average price of $7,204 and sold ETH at an average of $582.41.
I opened a 5X leveraged short on ETH:USD from $583.41 - $607.43 and did the same for ETH:BTC from 0.07479 - 0.07847.
Yesterday I was strongly expecting a bounce off of the 4 hour hammer candle to get us back to the short term EMA’s. Here is a quote from the daily update:
“I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.”
We did get a bounce, but it has not gotten anywhere close to the 12 day EMA and now we are looking at a very significant bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour. If we turn back around today and go on to create a new swing low below $5,964 then we will likely get to my $4,975 target in the next 2-5 days! That would be the most bearish possibility that I can think of.
It may seem counterintuitive but if that happens it would be a great opportunity to cover my short and open a long position. The harder and faster that the price falls into support the more likely we are to get a significant bounce.
There will be a lot of support waiting to buy Bitcoin at $5,000 and Ethereum at $300. So much so that I will feel fully comfortable trading against the trend with a leveraged position. But that is only if we fall hard enough beforehand.
CONTINUED BELOW...
5/28 was the last day that I was bullish. I recommended a short term buy at $7,250. That was based on how far the price was from the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the 4 hour and daily chart.
I turned bearish the next day because of the Ichimoku Cloud as well as the 50 week MA. Below is the weekly chart. I had been bullish since 4/6 due to the weekly cloud, support from the MA, overleveraged shorts and breaking the down trendline. Once that changed I was forced to join the bad news bears.
Due to the change in my outlook I immediately recommended to exit all bullish positions on the 29th and start preparing for a bearish entry. That was after a nice little pump and the price was trading above $7,400.
My gameplan was (and still is) to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leveraged short. I got out of all alts that were in profit or within 2% of breaking even.
On 6/9 I said to sell when the price of Bitcoin was trading above $7,600. By that time I was fully positioned and patiently waiting for the breakdown of the triangle.
I sold ¼ of my BTC at an average price of $7,204 and sold ETH at an average of $582.41.
I opened a 5X leveraged short on ETH:USD from $583.41 - $607.43 and did the same for ETH:BTC from 0.07479 - 0.07847.
Yesterday I was strongly expecting a bounce off of the 4 hour hammer candle to get us back to the short term EMA’s. Here is a quote from the daily update:
“I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.”
We did get a bounce, but it has not gotten anywhere close to the 12 day EMA and now we are looking at a very significant bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour. If we turn back around today and go on to create a new swing low below $5,964 then we will likely get to my $4,975 target in the next 2-5 days! That would be the most bearish possibility that I can think of.
It may seem counterintuitive but if that happens it would be a great opportunity to cover my short and open a long position. The harder and faster that the price falls into support the more likely we are to get a significant bounce.
There will be a lot of support waiting to buy Bitcoin at $5,000 and Ethereum at $300. So much so that I will feel fully comfortable trading against the trend with a leveraged position. But that is only if we fall hard enough beforehand.
CONTINUED BELOW...
Comment:
That sure turned around fast! The quick spikes upward are very suspicious and often provide a great opportunity to sell the rally. It gets FOMO buyers to come back out of the woodwork and will often reverse just as quickly as it started. Options 1 &3 are looking really good if you are currently not in a position.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
1) Scale into a short or out of spot at upcoming levels of resistance - $6,750 | $6,950 | $7,150
2) Set an order to open a short as soon as the price falls below $5,949. This can be done by making a “stop loss” order when you do not have any open positions. For example: set a stop loss sell order at $5,949 for the amount you wish to short.
3) Open short on alts vs BTC. Either wait for a rally or sell after it creates a new local low. For example: There will be resistance on ETH:BTC at 0.0765 but if it doesn’t get there then you could sell once it goes below 0.07149
Until next time best of luck in all of your endeavors and remember if you aren’t trading happily then don’t trade at all!