While I do think we're due for a bounce here. I think the highest that we're likely to go is ~47k before we see a reversal lower. If we do manage to get above that level, then we'd have to break 52K and close above it for price to change bullish.
If we don't close above that range, then I think this scenario is likely where we'll see BTC at $9-14k in March of 2022.
Pivots, supports and timing on the chart.
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Upper resistance just tested at 52.8k, let's see what happens here. If we can't break above this level, then I still learn towards this bearish scenario playing out. If we can, I will reassess at the next weekly pivot (end of Sept).
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Welp... got the rejection I was expecting with a candle all the way down to the low 40ks. Scenario still in play.
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Again, only one bullish scenario from here: Break above that 52.8k mark. If that doesn't happen, then this scenario is still in play. Hopefully we get some sideways BTC action until the next pivot in October/November so alts can run before the market rolls over.
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Broke above 52.8k... still not invalidated yet. We need to close over that level and test it as support. I have a feeling this move is similar to the move back in March where bitcoin broke 58.4k and went to 65K and then closed back below which led to this bearish trend.
Let's see... I'm just waiting and watching to see what happens from here.