Went back and charted the btc halvings to each start of bitcoins bull and bear markets. Blue vertical line is the bitcoin halving. Red vertical line is the start of a bear market. Green vertical line is the start of a bull market.
Couple things to note is that each bull market tends to be about 730 - 1050 days Each bear market tends to last between 360-420 days. The average drop in each bear market from All time high is 83%
If we take past bear market drops and draw a model of where bitcoin is going to go in the future it would look like the white path arrow posted in the chart.
I see 12K~ being the bottom with the possibility for a wick down to 10k.
I estimated that the next bull market will start around Mid April 2022 using past bull market trends.