SpartaBTC
Long

BTC Pennant is forming. Price is above the downtrend line.

CEXIO:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC After an impulse + 39% A pennant pattern is formed. Behind the trend is an upward pennant . Behind the shape of the canvas is a downward pennant . The shape of the canvas resembles a wedge . Not to be confused with a downward pennant according to the trend! These are the exact opposite formations! The pennant canvas is formed above the downtrend line. The development potential of the figure is the height of the flagpole, which is the impulse + 39%. We also observe a large volume during the impulse, and a decrease in volume during the formation of the canvas of the figure and a decrease in price is a very good sign for growth.

 Entrance to the transaction when the price breaks the upper border of the canvas of the pennant . The zone from which everything is decided is indicated by red. The first target is at a distance equal to the maximum height of the "canvas" of the figure from the breakdown point, the other target is at a distance equal to the height of the flagpole from the breakdown point.

Another variant. If the price breaks down the downtrend line, it will mean a continuation of the downtrend.

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About the pennant .

Pennant - the basic pattern for continuing the trend movement, is a Flagstaff and two converging horizontal lines. This figure resembles a small symmetrical triangle.

The graphic “Pennant Pattern” and its views behind the form: symmetrical pennant , ascending pennant and descending pennant are classic figures for continuing the trend. There is a descending and ascending pennant behind the trend. The figure got its name because of the converging lines of support and resistance .

The formation of “Pennant” means that the situation of overbought / oversold has formed on the market, when the rapid movement of prices has led to an imbalance, so the market should take a “rest” before the next movement. That is, the pattern is formed at the moment of a pause on the trend, and is a short-term consolidation, after which the price usually continues to move in the direction of the trend.
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Features, Pennant figures.

1) The emergence of such a model is preceded by a sharp movement in prices in the form of an almost straight line, accompanied by a significant volume of trade.
2) "Pennant" has an outline similar to a small horizontal symmetrical triangle.
3) "Pennant" are formed approximately in the middle of the price movement.
4) When a "pennant web" is formed, the volatility step and the trading volume decreases.
5) Trading volume increases when the "pennant web" breaks in the direction of the trend.
6) "Pennant" is formed more quickly with a downtrend.
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There are two types of Pennant for the trend:
1) "Ascending pennant ."
2) "Downward pennant ."

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a) “Ascending pennant” - a figure arising from the development of a strong impulse aimed at overcoming the resistance level . Its appearance on the chart is accompanied by a sharp increase in trading volumes, as a result of which one or two long ascending candles, called the “flagpole”, can be observed. Then, after the impulse reaches a certain strong price level, the formation of a “canvas” similar to a small triangle occurs. After which, in most cases, the further development of the current trend continues.

b) “Downward pennant” - a figure absolutely identical to its ascending formation, but directed from top to bottom during the development of a strong trading impulse on a negative trend. Outwardly, the “descending pennant” differs from the ascending one only in direction.
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In the form of "Pennant" is divided into three types:
a) Symmetric pennant (which everyone is used to).
b) Ascending Pennant .
c) Downward Pennant
.
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I will describe the type of pennant that is currently being formed on the chart. Downward pennant (in the shape of the canvas). Do not confuse with the trend! Trend down pennant is the opposite!

"Downward Pennant" (in the shape of the canvas!). target

This model is very similar to a descending wedge without a flagpole.
During the formation of the “Descending Pennant ,” the amplitude fluctuations decrease, while the volume indicators also decrease. But as soon as the figure breaks down, the volume indicators increase sharply.

There are two main trading tactics for various Pennants:

1) Trade on the distance of the flagpole of the figure.
2) Trade at a distance of the maximum height of the instrument - the central part of the Pennant (the height of the "canvas" of the figure).


I showed these two options on the chart.

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Different situations when forming the figure "Downward Pennant" (in the shape of the canvas).

1) If a downward pennant formed on a bearish trend , then the figure is likely to become a reversal pattern. Moreover, the strength of the reversal signal will be average or even higher than average.
2) If the price breaks the support level and moves down, then this will be a weak signal, which is not worth trading.
3) If the price has broken down a pennant on a bull trend down (support line), then in this case the signal will have weak strength. Therefore, it is advisable, in this case, to refrain from trading.

The practice goals are similar to those in the “Ascending Pennant” or “Symmetric Pennant”. The first target is at a distance equal to the maximum height of the "canvas" of the figure from the breakdown point, the other target is at a distance equal to the height of the flagpole from the breakdown point.
Comment: BTC Fractal 2016. Flat 77 days and a shot. The trend.
Comment: + 5% there is a breakthrough. It is important that the price fixes
Comment: Redrawn the canvas of the figure into a potential "flag".
Nothing has changed, everything is the same. The “Flag” and “pennant” have the same sales target.
Comment: If for example they decide to scare and break down a downtrend.
That with a high degree of probability the price will stop locally at the level of $ 7900-8000
Watch the red zone that I highlighted.

Comments

The value activity has seen BTC nearly 'stair-step' down with $10,000 solid opposition overhead. This is bearish value activity in my psyche.
Reply
SpartaBTC greenforexclub
@greenforexclub, Let's see how it will be.
On highly liquid instruments, we cannot influence the price as on small altcoins. As traders, we can only predict different options for movement, and which are more likely.
Nobody knows the future, even the one who controls the price.
Reply
Very Nice TA.
Reply
Very informative post. I have almost exact measurement as well, which coincides with fib trend extension. Looks very much like a flag on the daily bars and what you said on the mid timeframes. GL
Reply
SpartaBTC jthrasher
@jthrasher, Yes, you're right, the momentum stands out like a flagpole of a figure. The flag and pennant work out the same way, the division is arbitrary.
Reply
SpartaBTC jthrasher
@jthrasher, Work off either the height of the canvas of the figure, or the height of the flagpole. The impulse in this case was very strong and with a large volume, because there is a chance that it will work out at the full height of the flagpole or in the of this zone.
Reply
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