Thinking about momentum for this cycle. I noticed the pace at which we are inverting the EMAs on the weekly is much much faster than last cycle. Of course this is an extremely simplistic approach to measuring cycle timelines, so take it with a grain of salt.. just a thought exercise-
☙ In 2018 bear it took between 9 and 10 months for the first MAs to inverse with the 20 EMA dropping below the 50 EMA. It took 7 months for BTC to touch the 100 EMA. The
100 EMA held strong as support until late 2018, nearly a year later, when price collapsed well below the 100 and 200 EMAs for a few weeks (lowest point of 2018 bear).
☙ In 2021 so far based on the current trend angles, we would see the 20 EMA drop below the 50 EMA no later than September (50% faster), earlier if we drop further (say to
$20k). Price action touching the 100 EMA could come no later than October. (15% faster).
If the bottom of bear cycles the past two cycles averaged 300 days, and if we do confirm this is a bear and not a mid-cycle pause, we can speculate that the bottom of bear will come sooner. Its still a wide range, so we'll want to revisit this and layer some other data here.. but some quick math-
Bottom Line: Instead of the historical average of 300 days to hit the bottom of bear, we might see it somewhere between 250 days and 150 days, which would place the bottom between mid September and mid December of 2021.
☙ In 2018 bear it took between 9 and 10 months for the first MAs to inverse with the 20 EMA dropping below the 50 EMA. It took 7 months for BTC to touch the 100 EMA. The
100 EMA held strong as support until late 2018, nearly a year later, when price collapsed well below the 100 and 200 EMAs for a few weeks (lowest point of 2018 bear).
☙ In 2021 so far based on the current trend angles, we would see the 20 EMA drop below the 50 EMA no later than September (50% faster), earlier if we drop further (say to
$20k). Price action touching the 100 EMA could come no later than October. (15% faster).
If the bottom of bear cycles the past two cycles averaged 300 days, and if we do confirm this is a bear and not a mid-cycle pause, we can speculate that the bottom of bear will come sooner. Its still a wide range, so we'll want to revisit this and layer some other data here.. but some quick math-
Bottom Line: Instead of the historical average of 300 days to hit the bottom of bear, we might see it somewhere between 250 days and 150 days, which would place the bottom between mid September and mid December of 2021.