I wrote a 2 pager, published it, tradingview glitched and I lost the post. I rewrote the 2 pager, after staring at the screen for 5 minutes, did something really stupid and lost the post again.
So here's the TLDR, I'll write a more comprehensive update at some point.
I waited for BTC to hit the 0.114 since april 2, 2018 "(we're going to 3500)" We finally hit it, close to the pixel. I'm semi-bullish again, the chart should improve a lot in 2019
Targets are 32K, then 50K and ultimately 80K. Its hard to call the top of a bullrun, its more easy to call a bottom. Corrections after 32K could go back to 6K, 50K could go down to 12K and 80K could go down to 19K
I'm looking at the longer term, so mid 2019 till 2020 / 2021
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Bullish BTC last two times longer than bearish BTC Cycle 1, 2010; 329 days bullish / 154 days bearish / -93% Cycle 2, 2012: 735 days bullish / 406 days bearish / -85% Cycle 3, 2015: 1064 days bullish / 532 days bearish / -89% (?) Cycle 4 starts June 10, 2019. Cycle 5 starts around 2024
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Careful now boys and girls, that final shakeout will hurt a lot of people. Tread lightly
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Much better looking chart, bulls waking up a bit. Only out of the woods above 12882 But for now, I'm happy with the developments
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I'll stay bearish, even if we break 6300 I'll become not bullish nor bearish if we find support above 8300 I'll become bullish if we find support above 13400
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On a side note, to give you an insight in my long term mindset. I'm never going to sell the fast majority of my stack. I am a firm believer in the Trololo & AI Ien 'prophecy' where they theorised the following.
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This is from late 2014, when BTC was 500 USD.
Bitcoin to 10K on 22-11-2017. We hit that on 29-11-2017. Bitcoin to 100K on 16-07-2021. Bitcoin to 1M on 06-09-2026.
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They end with the following; the year is 2032, we have total acceptance of bitcoin by all the people (1 satoshi = 1 USD). All fiat is dead.
1 Bitcoin equals 100M USD (2000 trillion dollar human race economics, now equals to 70 trillion dollars) potential growth thanks to AI, Internet of things, Space industry etc.
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This may sound far fetched but from 0.05 USD to 20K (a 400000x) is a bigger jump than from 20K to 100M per BTC. For that to happen we 'only' need a 5000x from ATH and we'll hit 100M per BTC.
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Resistance is on its way, 13K is on the table if we blast through the 0.382 area
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more than a year later it seems BTC is ready for another attempt to turn 13.4K into support