The basis for the idea that we're seeing a double top is not just the obvious chart pattern but the low volume, MACD histogram divergence and break in stoch RSI buy signals. Immediate target for a sell-off based on the previous low. Moving beyond that, I believe that BTC is overvalued and overbought - still stuck in an optimistic cycle that is swiftly running out of buy support. Remember that in a bubble it is *always* "different this time".
This chart is only valid within a 1h time frame, it does not apply to the medium or long term trend.
Comments
Spekulatius
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A little remark about decreasing volume. You began to draw the volume trend a little too early, to show that the current leg up drives on decreasing volume you should look at 2013-11-20 11am, when the leg up started. If you look at the volume from the ath, you kind of confirm the opposite because the initial move was down to 464$, this move was also accompanied by decreasing volume.
The question now remains, whether we will produce a new low. My guess is: yes because this bubble has to deflate further or it is inconherent with prior bubbles. A double top would be a good basis for a strong move down. A continuation of this rally is very unlikely.
dot
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You're quite right, I should have drawn the trend line from the beginning of the rally to reflect its support, the volume on the sell-off is irrelevant. I appreciate the advice, thanks.
The question now remains, whether we will produce a new low. My guess is: yes because this bubble has to deflate further or it is inconherent with prior bubbles. A double top would be a good basis for a strong move down. A continuation of this rally is very unlikely.