1) This IS the scenario for Bitcoin at this point. If it doesn't come to fruition, we're probably in a bear market for at least the rest of the year & will likely make new lows along the way.
2) I'm a bull long term for Bitcoin so I'm erring on the side of a breakout for that reason as well. It almost seems like a logical disconnect to look at all the progress that has been made in the last year in crypto, including the massive publicity BTC has received just to conclude that price will fall to at or below levels before all that happened. The consolidation that's happened over the last 5 months makes sense - it was necessary given the run that it had & was perfectly healthy. A true bear market, though, would be quite surprising unless market makers are truly manipulating the hell out of it beyond what we've even assumed was going on.
3) People say "fractals work until they don't." I completely agree. It is incredibly stupid to assume that the market will do exactly what is expected of it. Often times it doesn't & traders must be prepared for any scenario. However, given that markets do repeat patterns frequently, if you have a that through 75% is indicative of price movement & you had to bet on it continuing to be similar or completely changing, what would you take? For me, I will continue to assume that the pattern is valid & will continue to imitate the UNTIL I am given evidence that convinces me otherwise. So far, I do not have that, so for now I'm assuming the pattern will continue & we will see a breakout to the upside of this triangle.
4) I think we deserve a bull run & so it shall be.
Happy trading & Long Live Bitcoin!
P.S. - I lost my old twitter account & had to make a new one today. I'd really dig it if you'd give me a follow & keep in touch! I love learning from the community & keeping the conversation going. I post trading updates frequently there as well as my free telegram channel. Cheers!