TradingShot
Long

BITCOIN The Halving Percentile and why $13000 is possible!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I received a lot of enthusiasm by the community with my latest series of Fibonacci cycles and thought to go this a step further and plot & compare Bitcoin's current (2018-2020) and former (2014-2016) cycle before the two Halving events (2nd and 3rd). The goal is to determine which phase of the Cycle we are now based on the pre-Halving price action of the previous BTC Cycle and what levels we will be at around the Halving.

** Making the Cycles **
Each Cycle starts from the previous peak (All Time High then) and ends on the Halving. As a result the 2014-2016 Cycle (Cycle A for our convenience) extends from November 2013 to June 2016, while the 2018-2020 Cycle (Cycle B for our convenience) extends from December 2017 to May 2020. As with my previous studies, I am using the Fibonacci log scale both on the horizontal (time) and the vertical (price) axis (with the top and bottom on 1 and 0 Fibonacci values respectively).

** Where are we now **
Despite some divergences (most notable of which was the April-June 2019 extension), we see that the two cycles have a similar price action. In particular as far as the most recent price action is concerned, we can see that the past 4 months (of Cycle B) were traded within the 0.382 - 0.618 on the vertical axis and 0.786 and 0.92 on the horizontal. Similarly Cycle A traded within those respective values and those phases are marked with the purple circle.

** The Halving Percentile and $13000 **
Now let's get to the essence of this study which is determining the price 2 months before and after the Halving. In Cycle A we see that after the former phase was concluded on the 0.92 (horizontal) Fibonacci, BTCUSD rose aggressively to the 0.786 (vertical) right before the Halving, only to pull back to the 0.618 the weeks after. This phase is displayed by the red Rectangle . If the same sequence is repeated then we may have a pre Halving peak at $13000 followed by a pull back to $10000 the weeks that will follow!

Now we all know that this is just a projection but we've witnessed first hand that Bitcoin has a remarkable consistency at repeating its cyclical behavior. A striking example is the idea below on the "Golden 51%-49% Ratio" that received a warmed acceptance by the community:




Do think we will see a repeat of the 2nd Halving and rise to $13000 or have a different value in mind? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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Comments

Please update this chart
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I hope your analysis is correct, but I think there will be no trace of its trading volume in 2016, so how do you think the bitcoin market is affected by the fall in oil prices and stock indexes?
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previous time I left the comment with no warm words this time I call your work significant
my view on btc now
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click play to recap my latest trade in BCHUSD.
BCHUSD H1 short-term 10% gains(NEW).
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a great perspective - Kudos for sharing it
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hello) it's my new btc analysis
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We will see 12k in the next 3 weeks
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