I received a lot of enthusiasm by the community with and thought to go this a step further and plot & compare Bitcoin's current (2018-2020) and former (2014-2016) cycle before the two Halving events (2nd and 3rd). The goal is to determine which phase of the Cycle we are now based on the pre-Halving price action of the previous BTC Cycle and what levels we will be at around the Halving.
** Making the Cycles ** Each Cycle starts from the previous peak (All Time High then) and ends on the Halving. As a result the 2014-2016 Cycle (Cycle A for our convenience) extends from November 2013 to June 2016, while the 2018-2020 Cycle (Cycle B for our convenience) extends from December 2017 to May 2020. As with my previous studies, I am using the Fibonacci log scale both on the horizontal (time) and the vertical (price) axis (with the top and bottom on 1 and 0 Fibonacci values respectively).
** Where are we now ** Despite some divergences (most notable of which was the April-June 2019 extension), we see that the two cycles have a similar price action. In particular as far as the most recent price action is concerned, we can see that the past 4 months (of Cycle B) were traded within the 0.382 - 0.618 on the vertical axis and 0.786 and 0.92 on the horizontal. Similarly Cycle A traded within those respective values and those phases are marked with the purple circle.
** The Halving Percentile and $13000 ** Now let's get to the essence of this study which is determining the price 2 months before and after the Halving. In Cycle A we see that after the former phase was concluded on the 0.92 (horizontal) Fibonacci, BTCUSD rose aggressively to the 0.786 (vertical) right before the Halving, only to pull back to the 0.618 the weeks after. This phase is displayed by the red Rectangle. If the same sequence is repeated then we may have a pre Halving peak at $13000 followed by a pull back to $10000 the weeks that will follow!
Now we all know that this is just a projection but we've witnessed first hand that Bitcoin has a remarkable consistency at repeating its cyclical behavior. A striking example is the idea below on the "Golden 51%-49% Ratio" that received a warmed acceptance by the community:
Do think we will see a repeat of the 2nd Halving and rise to $13000 or have a different value in mind? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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It will jump to 21,888. BTC always peaks at 57.13% higher than its last high in the same bull run (+/- 5%). In the current run, the first peak was 5642; increase that by 57.13% and you get 8865 (actual was 9008), increase that by 57.13% and you get 13930 (actual was 13796), increase that by 57.13% and you get 21,888.
You can also confirm this theory from the last bull run. The first peak was at 314. If you apply 57.13% increase progressively, you get:
Projected: 495, 778, 1223, 1922, 3020, 4746, 7458, 11719, 18414
Actual: 495, 778, 1191, 1873, 3000, 4974, 7776, 11517, 18353
The last one was an anomaly at 20,089. I think that was just a pop off top because of noobs buying in after 18353.
My targets for the rest of this run are: 21888, 34393, 54042, 84916, 133429, 209657, 329434. But of course we may not make it through all those stages because buying will exhaust at some point.
@karmayogi, nice. Agree on the blow off top -also took that into acct. when placing my fibs, got similar #'s
TradingShot
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@karmayogi, Very interesting calculations. I would help a great deal if you made a chart plotting these numbers on the projected curve for us to see.
nagihatoum
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LTC dropped dramatically prior to it's halving last year. I think BTC will follow similar suite. What you think of miners losing profit from the halving?
TradingShot
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@nagihatoum, Good observation regarding LTC, that move caught many of us off guard. The supply shock should cause a drop on BTC but a few days only prior to the Halving.
CryptoGuru369
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@nagihatoum, Why do you think BTC will follow? Just curious. Thanks!
nagihatoum
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@CryptoGuru369, all my technical analysis shows a downward trend prior to the halving. The volume is not there for a rally.
CryptoGuru369
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@nagihatoum, What TA, specifically? Do you have any related posted ideas? Thank you! :)
nagihatoum
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@CryptoGuru369, look at my BTC long term analysis in my idea section.
You can also confirm this theory from the last bull run. The first peak was at 314. If you apply 57.13% increase progressively, you get:
Projected: 495, 778, 1223, 1922, 3020, 4746, 7458, 11719, 18414
Actual: 495, 778, 1191, 1873, 3000, 4974, 7776, 11517, 18353
The last one was an anomaly at 20,089. I think that was just a pop off top because of noobs buying in after 18353.
My targets for the rest of this run are: 21888, 34393, 54042, 84916, 133429, 209657, 329434. But of course we may not make it through all those stages because buying will exhaust at some point.