Bitcoin finds resistance in the low 16Ks, followed by selling activity. We are not surprised, we have been very careful not to get sucked into the hype and low probability buy signals of recent weeks. In fact we have been talking about staying away from any new swing trades in Bitcoin since the mid 15K area was tested weeks ago (see my previous articles on here).
As of right now, there is still no reason to take any longs. The nearest significant support level continues to be in the mid 13Ks to low 14Ks. Our plan requires 3 things to unfold before we can assume any risk: 1st we need to reach an predetermined level (14,250 to 13,600), 2nd we need price action to produce a clear setup (chart pattern, candle stick pattern, etc.) and 3rd we need confirmation. Once we can measure risk and determine a favorable probability, we are prompted to share our idea and put on a new swing trade. Many traders do not have the patience or emotional restrain required to sit through such a slow process. What about going short? We don't short Bitcoin, which has been our policy since the beginning (we are consistent like our results).
The broader trend is still bullish and it is within reason to see a move to 20K in the coming months, at least from a technical perspective. That means in such a context, the best opportunities will be to buy into weakness but in a structured way, not in a reactive way or randomly.
There is more to timing markets than reading a chart (especially one polluted with lots of lines and oscillators). Probability is something you cannot see, something that an oscillator will not take into account, or something a professional marketer will focus on (less action = less customers). Our job as a market timer is to assign probabilities to market conditions in order to better identify opportunities that are likely to play out in our favor. ALL markets are HIGHLY RANDOM which means these opportunities will be infrequent.
If you are attempting to capture broader market moves in Bitcoin (swing trades), and you are putting on more than 1 or 2 trades per week, then you are over trading and your long term results will surely reflect that. I get questions all the time: how many trades do you take for Bitcoin? in October we only had 2 which you can read about in my previous articles. 15 days into November, we have had NONE, because we continue to follow our well defined swing trade strategy and WAIT for a high probability setup.
Thank you for taking the time to read my article, I hope you found it insightful.
correction would have come by now instantly rejecting 16k. We have bee hovering too long at this level for a hard pullback. Expecting 17-19k before any real move to the downside.
SpaceCatZ
⋅
you should not have sold it at 13k. What happens if we go up to 25k? I think you need to update your strategy for this years market.
Docop1
⋅
@SpaceCatZ, Quite the same as .. 20k why sold, it will pump to 22. But correction will happen, ema are way to low, but not before the stock market complete the measure move ath.
SpaceCatZ
⋅
@Docop1, Correction happens one way or another but you need to know when the danger is close. At 13k we had no problems. I like to remind that one major change in the market compared to previous ones! Paypal was the big news but it was not the reason for this rally. Real reason was the fact that authorities closing down on Bitmex and biggest market manipulator Arthur Hayes himself and his criminal crew. They were the bad apples in the market and now they are being watched every step they take. This was the outcome of one little change in this market but more significant than anything I have ever seen. Most importantly it eliminated giant Bitmex initiated dumps without a reason. Even after the correction things looking up from this point.. Flowing alt coin season we may see another Btc run to 20k-25 range
crypto008
⋅
The simple fact is there is not many coins left on the marked, and will push this higher and higher the paypal deal was a game changer