I am using Coinbase
BTCUSD
for this study. The objective is basically to follow through on crosses of the 100 and 200 Simple Moving Average to see when the price can't sustain another cross.
The minute chart is obviously going to provide the first cross which is an event that just happened on the chart above.....
Logically, the next cross will be on the next higher timeframe ( 3m ) in this case.
The current 3m sma look like this. A new pic will be added once the 3min cross manifests.
Patience is a virtue...and sometimes a killer...it took about 7 hrs for the 1min cross to manifest and began with some major sell off of btc after many hours of sideways action.
Logic - 3 minutes is to 1 min what 21 hrs is to 7 hrs - so waiting for a 3min cross might mean another 14hrs of patience and in that time anything from very slow sideways action to a major ( relative ) spike could occur in either direction.....
Will update with 3min result when appropriate....
Don't trade this but i invite you to study the concept and to let us know what u think...
Comment:
11AM - almost a day has gone by since the 1m cross manifested
The 5min timeframe has now made it 100 cross of the 200 ma but price has basically remained sideways.
This is neither good news nor bad for a trader. It simply shows that a knife ( panic selling ) seems like a promising time to enter a position but that unless you get a few of these minor timeframe crosses then it is best to avoid buying into a knife.
What's next....we move on to a longer timeframe ( 15 min in our case ) and wait to see where the 15 cross will manisfest.
At the current rate of change that cross could happen in the next 24 to 36hrs ( week end ).
However - with these longer timeframes comes some new scalping opportunities with wider ranges for the day trader type.......
If the 5 min fails then the 15 min cross will be delayed by ( ??? time ) but will eventually manifest at ( ??? price ).
New update in a few days when 15min cross paints....
The 5min timeframe has now made it 100 cross of the 200 ma but price has basically remained sideways.
This is neither good news nor bad for a trader. It simply shows that a knife ( panic selling ) seems like a promising time to enter a position but that unless you get a few of these minor timeframe crosses then it is best to avoid buying into a knife.
What's next....we move on to a longer timeframe ( 15 min in our case ) and wait to see where the 15 cross will manisfest.
At the current rate of change that cross could happen in the next 24 to 36hrs ( week end ).
However - with these longer timeframes comes some new scalping opportunities with wider ranges for the day trader type.......
If the 5 min fails then the 15 min cross will be delayed by ( ??? time ) but will eventually manifest at ( ??? price ).
New update in a few days when 15min cross paints....
Comment:
Well that was faster than expected...
It is closing in on midnite EST time and the 15 min cross is imminent.
The bitcoin fetched a top price of 6500 from a low of 5800 within a days trading.
The 30 minute time frame cross is the next focus. Even serious sustained price action above 6100 will guarantee a cross on the 30 min and should take a few days.
However this is crypto trading and anything is possible. BTc could continue to spike or it could even lose full momentum and retrace below 6k.
The only real guarantee is that if the 30 min cross ( surprisingly ) fails to manifest then ( Houston ) we have to assume the bullish run is temporarily on standby.
Otherwise in a few days we will be staring at the hrly and looking for that cross...
...and so on
Getting in is only half the game.....Getting out eventually is the other half....
It is closing in on midnite EST time and the 15 min cross is imminent.
The bitcoin fetched a top price of 6500 from a low of 5800 within a days trading.
The 30 minute time frame cross is the next focus. Even serious sustained price action above 6100 will guarantee a cross on the 30 min and should take a few days.
However this is crypto trading and anything is possible. BTc could continue to spike or it could even lose full momentum and retrace below 6k.
The only real guarantee is that if the 30 min cross ( surprisingly ) fails to manifest then ( Houston ) we have to assume the bullish run is temporarily on standby.
Otherwise in a few days we will be staring at the hrly and looking for that cross...
...and so on
Getting in is only half the game.....Getting out eventually is the other half....
Comment:
Whoops - forgot the 30 min image
Comment:
As expected the 30min cross manifested easily after the Friday spike and as seen in the next few image the hrly cross will likely from from continued sideways action ( unless some whale decides to set off the bot algos which could set up another spike at any time ).
The hrly chart cross is almost a given....and should occur within a few hrs ( b4 midnite EST ).
The 2hr chart is where the real challenge begins - a cross ( long ) on this timeframe might not manifest until mid wk.
So until then all we know for sure is that there is " potential " for an mid term upswing here. The overall sentiment is still bearish until we get that confirmation....
Until then it is a matter of either scalping or HODL'ing....
The hrly chart cross is almost a given....and should occur within a few hrs ( b4 midnite EST ).
The 2hr chart is where the real challenge begins - a cross ( long ) on this timeframe might not manifest until mid wk.
So until then all we know for sure is that there is " potential " for an mid term upswing here. The overall sentiment is still bearish until we get that confirmation....
Until then it is a matter of either scalping or HODL'ing....
Comment:
Comment:
after NY session open Monday AM EST - took this snapshot of 2hr tf ...
Comment:
whoops above 2hr chart is from kraken - pretty much same pic as coinbase - give or take
Comment:
This study is a week old already and started with a cross on the minute chart..
We have just witnessed a cross on the 2hr chart ( abt 8pm est July 7 )
....and we are now focused on the 3hr chart for the next cross which could manifest either Sunday or Monday a the current rate of change.
A BART on the short side could seriously lengthen the duration of that cross of continued short strength could send us all the way back to a restart of the minor timeframe crosses....
Price action is so slow right now the only intraday scalps are found by looking at the 2 and 3 hr tf's.. range trades...risky trades and only worth trading by support expert leverage traders or by mini whales with huge bankrolls....
So we wait and wait some more....
We hadn't seen a 2 hr cross since the first wk of June and that one failed miserably...
The last 3hr cross was a big winner....and even after the signal produced a 1800$ move on BTCUSD....( April 18 May 6 area long ) ...
But ...the last short cross on the 3hr was even more spectacular and push BTCUSD back some 2600$ after the cross.....
...so you want to be at trader you say ?????
We will end this sturdy here .....
This is just that....a study....use at your own risk...gl
We have just witnessed a cross on the 2hr chart ( abt 8pm est July 7 )
....and we are now focused on the 3hr chart for the next cross which could manifest either Sunday or Monday a the current rate of change.
A BART on the short side could seriously lengthen the duration of that cross of continued short strength could send us all the way back to a restart of the minor timeframe crosses....
Price action is so slow right now the only intraday scalps are found by looking at the 2 and 3 hr tf's.. range trades...risky trades and only worth trading by support expert leverage traders or by mini whales with huge bankrolls....
So we wait and wait some more....
We hadn't seen a 2 hr cross since the first wk of June and that one failed miserably...
The last 3hr cross was a big winner....and even after the signal produced a 1800$ move on BTCUSD....( April 18 May 6 area long ) ...
But ...the last short cross on the 3hr was even more spectacular and push BTCUSD back some 2600$ after the cross.....
...so you want to be at trader you say ?????
We will end this sturdy here .....
This is just that....a study....use at your own risk...gl
Comment:
Whoops ...2hr cross happened on July 5 not 7
Comment:
tired - my spelling so bad....support = super and other typos r free
if image doesn't print then just look up coinbase chart for June 29, 2018....
The move was difficult and price failed the 1m cross once and then spiked for a retrace....never easy....
Next...we move on to the 5min and see if this long has any potential...
5min chart currently looks like this.
Again noob with these update idea images
Will update on the 5min progress when i get crosses.....likely in less than 12 hrs....
Again just trading ideas - use at your own risk...