I can't believe I didn't short last night! I even made a post on the double top at the top of the descending channel and how it would be a great spot to short.
The 13th and 14th of last month were strong bullish after a descending channel, a reach to the top of the channel and a rejection. I know it's a horrible idea to have expectations the exact same thing will happen this month, but I'm being extra careful for two more days just in case.
As far as our previous shared take on 'the map' goes, it seems more likely now we are going through the same thing that happened in 2013. If it plays out the same way we will see a fall all the way to the low 20s quite soon, a bounce from there and then pretty much continued upward movement all the way until the end of the year. Maybe a rejection at the htf resistance zone around 50k but then a quick recovery before reaching aths. So basically this could be a massive falling wedge that plays out very quickly as opposed to one with an abc correction.
This was actually my initial thought process before I got all fancy with a b wave to 48k. Occam's Razor suggests that maybe the simplest explanation is the right one.
Wondering what that would look like to you and what your thoughts are on all of this.
Eloquent
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@ClearOpenDoor, from my experience, wave 4's are the longest, slowest, and most tedious of all the waves. they grind, and grind, fake out the bears, fake out the bulls, hunt for liquidity, and basically bore everyone out of the market. once the "wykoff accumulation" ends that everyone is talking about, we get that last dip as displayed above to literally take out everyone's stops, and liquidate high leveraged longs before the mark up phase which is nicknamed "the suckers rally". (there's a cme gap up there, and it's in confluence with the text book elliott wave target, so i decided to roll with my primary which is the above.
that wave b markup phase will happen quickly, as everyone who got stopped out, or who got bored and walked away will end up fomoing back in, thinking that the new bull run has begun - but market makers want this to happen from a psychological perspective. once we fill the cme gap, they will dump their bags on everyone, and we'll see a sick liquidation wick from all the longs who opened positions along the way. this will create mass despair, and nobody in their right mind will try to attempt to long the low 20's after a fall like that. that is when market makers win, and we begin the next phase - the bull run.
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knowing this though, you can set your self up beautifully in all three directions
long 27~28k in small increments on lower leverage
short 46~50k on lower leverage
and long 20~23k on lower leverage.
we can't go beneath 19764.51(which was the 2017 high of the larger Wave 3), otherwise it would invalidate the entire count from 2012 (market makers won't allow this to happen as well, as that would be over for crypto for the many years to come).
if all of this actually plays out by the ewt book, i'm going to have to change my username to "the magick crystal ball"
btc has been beautifully algorithmic since 2012, so i don't see why it would break formation randomly - which leads me to believe we got this 💸
Eloquent
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@ClearOpenDoor, it was the dip that kept dipping, and then the rip that kept ripping
looking back at some older ideas just to see how far we've come.
I still have to short this when it gets close to 52.5, but if it consolidates underneath and comes back for more up top I'll flip long again and use this as the guide for what will probably happen next.
57k.... that would be wild and much higher than I wanted this to go. I suppose that would sufficiently scare anyone from trying to short though.
This is becoming like Night of the Living Dead Bitcoin