Here's a clean image of the chart to zoom in without changing scale:
Everyone and there mother is looking at the 2014 fractal now. Most traders are just following what other traders are saying, but not digging down into patterns and facts. I have been looking and trading fractal patterns for years and know a few quirks with experience that only seem apparent after 20/20 hindsight. While fractals can have similar patterns they don't have to have similar price action. While I do believe Bitcoin is highly manipulated I am also tired of hearing traders using that as an excuse as to why the market isn't in their favor or went against their analysis. BTC has followed the 2014 fractal to the tee and at this point it's not coincidence.
Let's look at the facts. 2014 BTC retraced 85%. From 20K to $3120 on Coinbase we have a 84.4% retracement. Everyone is looking how we broke the first triangle, had a bear flag around $350 in 2014 then dropped to around $200. If you look closer the bear flag pattern was consolidation still above the base in 2018, vs. a price break down. There was less liquidity in 2014 and less interest in Bitcoin probably making it easier to break very strong supports that we saw in 2018. We see in # 6-9 consolidation and convergence to the end of the triangle/pennant followed by a break down into capitulation. We have now created an ADAM and EVE pattern and will approach the downtrend again. BTC needs to close with a higher high to make a W reversal structure. We want to see a test of the downtrend still or a retracement without making a new low ($3500-3700) where BTC can try and walk sideways out of the downtrend. Of course if we hit the downtrend and push lower we expect to retest lows and potentially move down to $2800 and low as $1870.
Given interest, fundamentals and this fractal I believe we are seeing a bottom here. If you want to have daily market updates and trading opportunities please PM me to find out more info about Surge Trading Group or email me at Surgetradinggroup@gmail.com. We help educate new and advanced traders about the crypto markets as well as find trading opportunities (for education purposes).
Happy trading all. This bear will end soon enough. Those who have weathered it, congratulations. We are in for quite the adventure these next couple years.
Comment
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Looking back this was a great trade. If you liked this analysis and are interested in more trading updates please connect with my twitter and telegram channel:
Hi - Your title although perhaps somewhat in jest is an appeal to irresponsibility luring new traders to think this is a free lunch of a lifetime. Well unfortunately just because Bitcoin may have similarities to 2014, that doesn't mean this bearish trend is not going to drastically overshadow 2014. What if these fractals you look are essentially useless. @london55555
NewYork888
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@dRends35, 100% correct - this is a very dangerous title that could catch NEW TRADERS.
mythrin
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@dRends35, The title is obviously satire. I do agree that past price action does not dictate future price action, but the fractal can obviously only be used as a reference and not guaranteed price prediction. As far as luring people in, this isn't investment advice and if people were following trades called by top authors like magic poop cannon they would be broke by now. Thanks for the feedback and good luck.
dinopiccinin
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@baileybd, I don't recommend it, but you could definitely be successful following a top author who's correct less than %50 of the time. People on this website seem to be obsessed with being right while long term success is dictated by risk management.
NewYork888
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@dinopiccinin, 100% correct re Risk Management and something very few on tv are even aware of Great comment. As to the 50% comment disagree 100% but then again you said that you dont recommend it @dRends35
dRends35
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@baileybd, Satire perhaps, but I watched a home-brew documentary recently of people who have done just that or similar at the wrong moment and lost everything or near to everything.
@london55555
mythrin
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@dRends35, Like anything else, always do your own homework. You get out what you put in. Never rely on one source and always trust yourself, because trading is AT YOUR OWN RISK! If a guy told you to put red on roulette and said it's a sure thing and you did it and lost, would the guy be to blame? No.
dRends35
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@baileybd, Yes i agree, which is why Bitcoin bottom is most likely not in despite a sea of TV dross, and it's certainly not time to remortgage the house
@london55555
powdah
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Cool charts, dumb title.
Most likely will be sleeping in the street if mortgaging house on any crypto
mythrin
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If you liked this analysis and are interested in more trading updates please connect with my twitter and telegram channel: