We have three signs of reversal:
We may have one sign that the reversal is invalidated:
TD Sequential, if the 4hr continues to show 2 trading below 1 when it closes.
A second invalidation would come in the form of the previous low breaking, and this would be a strong sign of a continued downtrend, because it would also re-enter the descending pattern.
6500 has been defended, but appears it may breakdown. A third break of 6450 could trigger accelerated selling and take it below prior support area at 6240. The area between 6450 and 6240 needs to be watched carefully for short opportunities and stop-losses on open long positions.
- TD Sequential.
- Breaking of the descending trendline.
- Bounce off the descending trendline.
We may have one sign that the reversal is invalidated:
TD Sequential, if the 4hr continues to show 2 trading below 1 when it closes.
A second invalidation would come in the form of the previous low breaking, and this would be a strong sign of a continued downtrend, because it would also re-enter the descending pattern.
6500 has been defended, but appears it may breakdown. A third break of 6450 could trigger accelerated selling and take it below prior support area at 6240. The area between 6450 and 6240 needs to be watched carefully for short opportunities and stop-losses on open long positions.
Trade active:
I am currently short. I think we are at the top of a right shoulder. I am targeting the neckline, at roughly 6300. If that breaks, my short will be reopened with a target of a double bottom at roughly 6150. Should that break, I think we will see somewhere in the 5900s. If that breaks, I'll be opening the biggest short I've taken out in many weeks. I think we will see 6300 on Sunday, perhaps 6150 early Monday morning. Next week could look up depending on what happens at the bottom. All the preceding will be invalidated if 6700 breaks first. For me, that would confirm the reversal was in after it bottomed out at 6150 and we should target 7050, 7500, 8000, and 8350. I would open a long position if support is established above 7050 and open a short position at the 0.238 Fibonacci level from whatever top with 6150 as the bottom.
Trade closed manually:
Despite low volume, the price could not be driven below the historic support at 6450. Closed my shorts on the second bounce. Looking for good long entries when support established at 6500 again. Target would be 7050.
