Good morning, traders. If you are with us in Discord, then you know that Bitcoin's move over night hit the third target that we had based on the Dragon harmonic pattern. It also hit last night's triangle target and a bit more, while sitting up the golden cross. As long as price remains elevated through the daily close, that cross should happen. This Show of Strength (SOS) confirmed the recent blue TR as accumulation with an uprise, as I have been mentioning it appeared to be for almost two weeks now. Finally, price has tapped just above the daily supply creating that swing high over night as well. While increasing numbers of traders continue to pile into the "sell everything, it's going to crash right now" corner, it seems more likely that price will continue higher toward the targets we have outlined previously. The argument from the "sky is falling" group is that price is fatigued, however daily RSI and Stoch RSI do not agree with that analysis. The former is barely overbought at 75.6 and the latter has just recently moved out of oversold. That combination generally means that price has more steam left in the tank. Currently, RSI and MACD are printing possible bearish divergence, but since the upward movement hasn't completed yet we could see those indicators continue to rise with price. In other words, the divergence hasn't definitively been printed yet, but it needs to be watched.
At this time, I am watching the November 18, 2018 swing high at $5658.47 (red line). I believe a push through that level should trigger another short squeeze and see price targeting the EQ of the supply, at the least, which would complete a full retrace of the November shakeout. A look at the VPVR on the right side of the chart shows that there is little interest for traders until around that area. CME Bitcoin futures expiry happens on Friday, and if they're net long then we can likely expect some added push to get price as high as possible before that time. If you measure the flagpole from the break through the log resistance line, then the target (green) for that pennant pattern is also at that same area.
Price has been printing an ascending channel, as we have been watching for a while now, and a move through that channel's resistance should target (blue) the same general area in the supply that I mentioned. If price hits this level, then we would likely expect price to retrace toward $5200/$5300 for wave 4, before completing wave 5 above $7000. Wave 2 took about 1.5 months to complete, so we can expect wave 4 to likely take about 4 weeks, possibly aligning with CME Bitcoin futures May expiry to complete short through the month and then long into June. We can probably expect to see alts finally making some gains again during May, if this scenario holds true.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
At this time, I am watching the November 18, 2018 swing high at $5658.47 (red line). I believe a push through that level should trigger another short squeeze and see price targeting the EQ of the supply, at the least, which would complete a full retrace of the November shakeout. A look at the VPVR on the right side of the chart shows that there is little interest for traders until around that area. CME Bitcoin futures expiry happens on Friday, and if they're net long then we can likely expect some added push to get price as high as possible before that time. If you measure the flagpole from the break through the log resistance line, then the target (green) for that pennant pattern is also at that same area.
Price has been printing an ascending channel, as we have been watching for a while now, and a move through that channel's resistance should target (blue) the same general area in the supply that I mentioned. If price hits this level, then we would likely expect price to retrace toward $5200/$5300 for wave 4, before completing wave 5 above $7000. Wave 2 took about 1.5 months to complete, so we can expect wave 4 to likely take about 4 weeks, possibly aligning with CME Bitcoin futures May expiry to complete short through the month and then long into June. We can probably expect to see alts finally making some gains again during May, if this scenario holds true.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
