BTC Weekly Cycle – 0.786/0.818 Fib + TDI + Miner Capitulation

Looking at BTC's full price history on the weekly chart, one pattern has repeated itself across every single major cycle without exception: the macro bottom formed inside the 0.786–0.818 Fibonacci retracement zone of that cycle's range, while the weekly TDI was fully washed out near the 30 level, and miners were in deep capitulation. Right now, not one of these three conditions is met. That tells me we have not bottomed and another leg down is still ahead.

The Fib Pattern Across Every Cycle
Every macro cycle bottom in BTC's history has landed inside the 0.786–0.818 fib zone of that cycle's full range. Not the 0.5, not the 0.618 — always the 0.786/0.818.
'13 top → '15 bottom
BTC corrected deep into the 0.786–0.818 zone (~$214–$251) before the next cycle began.
'17 top → '18 bottom
After the 2017 peak, BTC dropped into the 0.786–0.818 zone (~$3,322–$3,699), marking the macro low.
'21 top → '22 bottom
Same structure — the 0.786–0.818 zone (~$15,122–$17,326) caught the bottom perfectly.
Three cycles. Three bottoms. Same fib zone every time.
The current cycle's 0.786–0.818 zone sits around $35,622–$39,163. Price is currently trading significantly above this zone. The structural target has not been reached.

The Weekly TDI Still Has a Long Way Down
This is the part that stands out most to me right now.
Looking at the weekly TDI across every previous cycle bottom, each one saw the TDI fully flush into the lower range near the 30 level, deep oversold territory on the higher timeframe. That exhaustion in momentum was the confirmation that the macro washout was complete.
Right now the weekly TDI is sitting in mid-range. It has not even begun approaching oversold levels. That is not what a macro bottom looks like that is what the middle of a correction looks like. The TDI still has a significant amount of headroom to travel lower, and historically that headroom gets filled before a real bottom is in.
The fact that the TDI is only at mid-range while price is already down significantly from the top actually tells me the worst selling pressure hasn't arrived yet. Real capitulation moves the TDI hard and fast into that lower zone and we haven't seen that at all.

Miner Capitulation.. Not Complete
Adding further weight to this thesis is the miner capitulation picture. Looking at the BTC price vs. previous cycle bottom chart, the current cycle is entering the red/orange phase — price returning toward the 100% baseline relative to the prior bottom, which historically represents miners operating near or below profitability.
Every previous cycle saw this miner capitulation phase fully complete right around the macro bottom zone. That flush forces the weakest mining operations out of the market, removes persistent sell pressure, and sets the stage for the next accumulation phase. We are in that process right now, but it does not look complete yet.

Three Signals. All Pointing the Same Direction.
At this moment in the cycle:
Price is above the 0.786–0.818 fib zone, target not reached
Weekly TDI is at mid-range.., nowhere near the 30 level washout seen at every prior bottom
Miner capitulation is in progress but not yet complete
When all three were aligned in previous cycles, that was the macro bottom. Right now none of them are aligned. That is why I'm not calling a bottom here, and why I believe another leg down is still the most likely path forward.

What I'm Watching For
The setup I'm waiting for requires all three to converge:
Price reaching the $35,622–$39,163 fib zone
Weekly TDI pushing down toward the 30 level
Miner capitulation completing its final flush
When those three align that is where I'll start watching seriously for macro bottom confirmation. A strong reaction from that zone combined with the TDI curling back up from deeply oversold levels would be the signal.
Until then, every bounce and retrace is just that a retrace within an ongoing correction.

Two Scenarios
Scenario 1 (primary): One more leg down
Price continues lower into the $35K–$39K fib zone, the weekly TDI finally reaches oversold territory near 30, and miner capitulation completes. This combination would match every prior cycle bottom structure and represent the real macro low of this cycle.
Scenario 2 (secondary): Immediate reversal
If BTC reclaims key levels with strong conviction and the TDI begins curling back up from current mid-range levels, this thesis would need to be reconsidered. But a weak bounce that gets rejected keeps the primary scenario fully intact.

Not financial advice.., just a historical structural observation across multiple cycles. The data is what it is.