Finally have an EW count that I can't find major issues with. Feedback and alternate counts are appreciated. For those less familiar with Elliott Wave, essentially a correction can be any combination of corrections connected with an "X" wave. So Bitcoin appears to be in the midst of a triple combo correction. This most recent wave from the 5900 low, could either be a wave 1 of a new impulse or a continuation of the correction, which with each passing day seems to be the case.
My thought is that we are ending this series with a zigzag. BTC has shown a tendency to truncate C waves at the .786 extension of A, so I would not be surprised if that were the case this time as well.
The reason I picked 7.5-7.7k as a target is due to the large degree of confluence in that zone.
-We have an intersection with the trendline from 2017 -It is also the .786 fib extension of the A wave of ABC that we are currently in. -It is right at the .786 retracement from the swing high at 11.8k -It is at the .618 retracement from the 20k top drawn from the 2015 low -There is another support/resistance trendline from the 20k top (drawn in blue) that intersects at that point. -Finally, if you believe bots control this market, it's also the -0.236 target zone for bots which are short from the most recent swing high of 11.7k
That is way too much confluence to ignore! If we reach that area, I believe buyers should enter with volume. If that fails to happen I would be scared for a further drop to who knows how low. Guessing 4.8k.
On the other hand, if we can hold that support and bounce with strong volume, I think we'll blow through the downtrend resistance line at 10k easily and finally be done with this bear market.
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As we speak it seems like the E wave in the most recent triangle (b) wave may fail. That doesn't change the target by much if at all.
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Would also like to mention that if the bullish pattern completes, it will be the largest inverse H&S you've ever seen :D
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Looks like we're going a bit lower, probably around 7k. Still waiting for a proper wave 4 to form, and it's confusing the heck out of me right now. We could very well end in a slow moving diagonal.
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argh posted in the wrong space and can't delete comments. check below for update.
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It all makes sense now!!! Ending diagonal! Double bottom at 7.5-7.7k
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Hi guys sorry for not updating with more precise targets as we had more data, but I hope you were all able to get in some good long positions with minimal risk.
Our next target will be 10k at the descending trendline. Each resistance level along the way will be a test for whether we are going to but out of this bear market or continue with it. Will post a new idea with a forecast for the coming few days soon.
Well, nailed the target at 7.7k. Still unsure if that was a real bottom, volume certainly doesn't suggest so.
I'm looking for 4hr RSI to bottom out at 20 and significant volume before considering a real bottom. It seems like there are no buyers in this 8k to 8.6k range. We have to break 8600 and form a proper wave 5 to confirm the bullish count. If we fail after 3 waves, that will be confirmation that this was wave 4 and wave 5 down to 7.3k or lower is coming.
15 minute chart below with bearish count in red and bullish count in blue.
DennisLeeBTC
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Well, nailed the target at 7.7k. Still unsure if that was a real bottom, volume certainly doesn't suggest so.
I'm looking for 4hr RSI to bottom out at 20 and significant volume before considering a real bottom. It seems like there are no buyers in this 8k to 8.6k range. We have to break 8600 and form a proper wave 5 to confirm the bullish count. If we fail after 3 waves, that will be confirmation that this was wave 4 and wave 5 down to 7.3k or lower is coming.
15 minute chart below with bearish count in red and bullish count in blue.
I'm looking for 4hr RSI to bottom out at 20 and significant volume before considering a real bottom. It seems like there are no buyers in this 8k to 8.6k range. We have to break 8600 and form a proper wave 5 to confirm the bullish count. If we fail after 3 waves, that will be confirmation that this was wave 4 and wave 5 down to 7.3k or lower is coming.
15 minute chart below with bearish count in red and bullish count in blue.