ShaheenFahmy

SO, TO THE MOON THEN? OR MAYBE NOT?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Let's get right into it.

I was definetly wrong by expecting BTC to bottom out BEFORE some sort of pullback to the upside.

That's what trading & investing is.

You can't/won't be always right, and in case you were wrong, you SHOULD admit it and adapt to the most recent developments.

During my previous analysis, I mentioned the possibility of BTC reaching 9.500-9.700$ and it worked out pretty well.
I considered a bearish scenario as well, but it did NOT play out.

From now on, my trading ideas will consist of TWO potential outcomes, because that's what I think you guys deserve and makes most sense.

What I want to talk about in this analysis, is the log trendline which has been "broken to the upside".
At least that's what the majority is claiming.

When it comes to drawing trendlines , I've noticed that using the LINE-CHART is much more precise, because there is no room for individuality.
By using the CANDLE-CHART, you are given multiple options, thus being less accurate.

So I decided to draw this downtrend-line BTC has been fighting with for quite some time now, using the LINE CHART.

And that's what happened:


Notice how we're still inside the downtrend.

I'm expecting BTC to test this resistance by any minute.

In case we breakout, I'm personally aiming for a long position, targeting
11k (blue zone).

Depending on how BTC behaves, the bull run MIGHT continue or we'll get back into the bear market, making a new bottom.

The second scenario I'm looking forward to is a huge drop , once BTC reaches that trendline, forcing us towards a new low.
Watch out for support levels at 9.000$ & 8.300$

I'll kee you guys updated here.

Personally, I think BTC's ultimate low is yet to come, unless we get a sustained breakout above this blue zone.

Happy Trading & nice week!





Comment: Close your longs from last trade.
BTC is currently struggling to breakthrough.
Now is not the time to open a position.
Watch closely how price reacts.

Comment: Beautiful to watch how this line is being rejected :)

Comment: Approaching support (9.000$)

Trade active: 1st Target: 8.900$-8.800$
2nd Target: 8.500$-8.600$
Trade closed: target reached: Secure those profits!!
Comment: Re-enter short position.
Target: 8.600$
SL: 9.050$

Trade closed: stop reached: SL hit
Appears Bear-Flag is still forming.
Waiting for re-enter.

Comment: Was just about to update you about the flag breakdown and got distracted.
Target: 8.600$-8.500$

Comment: It's all about patience ;)

Comments

Secured large gains thanks to you, nice call.
+2 Reply
ShaheenFahmy modestpower
@modestpower, Pleases me to hear, thanks!
+3 Reply
Thanks for your charts and sharing your ideas. Here is my weekly for a longer term perspective:
+1 Reply
@tuamen, nice. What was used for your B and C points. Are these Fib retrancement levels?
Reply
Thanks for the analysis. The Feb/March peaks also went just above the Fib retrace levels (Fib from December high to Feb low) before dropping off again,
+1 Reply
ShaheenFahmy RicktheScientist
@RicktheScientist, You're welcome! Yes, nice observation!
Reply
the trend line of urs is very strange ! it is very weak do not count on it. the main down trend is broken already. you can't connect only 2 points and expect it to be a major down trend. price might bounce back of your trend for correction but only because it needs to correct.

maybe check this.

+1 Reply
@MikeMoh, Well...here you go then :)

Reply
zutta ShaheenFahmy
@ShaheenFahmy, Exactly :)
Reply
please do an update.
Reply
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