After the initial dump around the 17th, I made an analysis on BTC where I discussed the fact that this token was the most oversold on the daily RSI since the COVID dump. My short-term expectation was more edged towards the bullish side than towards the bearish.
My target area for the bounce lied between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements. This area is often an area of strong resistance and will nearly always signal a continuation of the trend if it can hold.
To make things worse for the bulls, the 200-week average lies around 27.500. This moving average is historically the most important moving average. Given the fact that a lot of traders will look at this indicator makes it worthwhile to look at it as well.
I'm not convinced that the bulls will push through. With the ETF not even being approved yet it's essentially "news before the news". Sure, it's good news, but is it enough to start a long-term trend reversal?
Like mentioned before, I'm not convinced yet. If BTC can close the day above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (~28.300), I will switch my short-term bias to bullish. If not, we're still in bearish territory.
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0.382 retracement (27.150 area) is holding for now. Bullish stock market can push BTC to break out bullish. We got some important macro / ETF news in the near future, keep an eye out.
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All ETF decisions are delayed. As expected, the pump was just temporary and reversed from my initially indicated area.