katyusha

BTCUSD - Bulltrap and Rollercoaster ahead + psychology analysis

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is no wizardry: don't look so much for cause-effect in the news, when the charts can offer a lot more insight:

The trading bots belonging to bigger and smaller whales are running on auto and manually, all to fine tune the milking of larger and smaller investors who think that now the crash ("correction") is finally over.
Their algorithms are well-designed and now adapting to more buying orders in order to lure even more fish into their BULLTRAP.

Yesterday, 6th             Feb 2018, we already fell to 5800-6000 (depending on your sources) which nearly exactly corresponds to the dip on 12th Nov 2017.
Will we retest this area again?
Sure we will.

Revisiting 6000 and below might even cause more panic selling which will result in an even deeper fall to 5500 (25th Oct 2017) or 5200 (18th Oct 2017) or 4200 (5th Oct 2017) or 3600 (22nd Sep 2017) or 3000 (15th Sep 2017)

Not trying to paint it black, simply listed a few major dips in the last 5 months.

If you have observed the global crypto market cap volume in the recent weeks you have probably realized that pumps&dumps do differ in length, intensity and frequency.

Generally now normal investors are not only desperate but also confused and hopeful that BTC             might be going to the moon again only to be deceived by a _longer_ upward motion and getting eaten by the sharks again later around 8000-8500.

Meaning that they simply want to build up more hope in crypto-investors by increasing the duration of uptrends.
Until 70% fall for the FOMO finally. Everyone would like to believe that crypto will moon anytime soon to the all-time-high of 19900 but this is merely just wishful thinking as historical charts nearly always show a 80-90% retrace after such a steep rise. Compare the 75% retrace from Dec 2013 to Jan 2015 (from 1000 to 250) - was a long correction, this time it shouldn't take that long.

Don't be fooled, the market is still bearish , controlled by bots, just cleverly disguising it with 'news'. And don't panic.
How many bulltraps will we face now? A few - just watch the charts - I don't have a crystal ball either to predict when exactly. How will the crypto market react to the G20 meetings in 2018?

Maybe things will stabilize around Chinese Lunar New Year 16th Feb 2018, maybe not, considering that now it got a lot harder for people in China to acquire crypto.

Some say that it's _not_ wallstreet vs. crypto but the old system hardliners won't just give in / give up easily.
Or not without profiting from the new development.
Regulations and FUD and obstacles in our way will be spread frequently, which will partly increase the popularity of crypto anyway since most people by now know that it's sometimes a good idea to investigate topics deeply that mainstream media, g0v and corporate representatives portray as 'bad' or 'concerning'. Especially if it could affect their financial pyramids in the future.
While the crypto market still has a lot of room to grow, considering visualizations such as: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/

One could think all this represents "fear of change" on the part of large institutions, although it's more likely that they're already invested and don't want 70% of the herd to follow.

The same with wishful thinking on our part - don't just "hope for a good change" so we can go to the "moon".
Actively supporting this innovative technology is key. Get involved with projects, learn programming, get in touch with the teams.
The more strong projects there are, the more solid and diverse the whole crypto world becomes.

Basically they don't want to crash this market totally as they are already making tons of $$$ via bots moving in&out massive amounts and the high volatility which is a lot more fun for trading than stocks.
This is not professional investment advice.

Might be a good idea to use the next dip for a small / medium position, but not clear if it will be the last major dip or if it will dip even deeper.
So you're confident of a dip... just not whether it will be the last dip.

I feel like everyone is becoming bullish again, and realizing how 6K was pretty ridiculous. I still have money that I want to use to buy BTC , but I'm losing faith in the bears... and the fact that a lot of people are expecting another dip. Let's be real here, everything about BTC outlook is BULLISH... the only thing that caused this bear market was sentiment. The parabolic dump was obviously forced and much needed. But sentiment is beginning to change, SEC note was ultra bullish, people are realizing the tether FUD and asia FUD is bullshit. I think the FOMO is coming soon and the bears already made enough profit.... we were 75% down from ATH! Is that not enough?

I really really really hope you're right, I even feel like it SHOULD dip again for the same reasons you mentioned.... but Bitcoin never does what I want it to do, so I'm guessing the bulls are gonna take over
+3 Reply
It's going to be a lot of worse, I believe. FOMO kids are balls deep in this, can be bad imo.
Like super bad. I don't want to say it, but 2014-15 all over again.
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor ja.piotr.bor
@ja.piotr.bor, We are in return to normal, or denial phase, and it looks like b-wave elliot wave. If true - that's really bad.
A few remarks to note, we have reached top - forbes crypto "billionaries" - same list was published about dotcom rich in 2000, signing top of the market.
Newses about crypto rich are everywhere, hodl mentality, and buying on the dips doesn't look like is working anymore.
That are the points, that crash is imminient just waiting for right time to trash it.
+1 Reply
katyusha ja.piotr.bor
@ja.piotr.bor, Thanks for your thoughts, you mean it could take years for this market to recover like 2013 and 2014?
Reply
katyusha katyusha
@katyusha, the forbes.com article and dotcom rich parallel is indeed strikingly interesting
but i doubt that they will want to sink this milk cow totally
at least not forever:)
Reply
@katyusha, There are a lot of indicators at play, now institutions and funds getting imo out slowly, but steady. Some crypto investors have got out a week or 2 weeks ago, even tho they were for very long time. Others have made less exposure to bitcoin or changed it's place, in lower ranks. These all rings bells imo.
Personally I was waiting for the bounce, but got out eventually a few days ago, with some losses, but mainly in profit. This bounce isn't so strong.
Bearish market now can be bad, as crypto is an extreme market type - going from hyperbole to hyperdown.

In long term - there will be much bigger cap. But I think 2018 will be painful. And that year probably most of smart institution will came - after crash just like in 2002 came funds to some nasdaq stocks, and made a killing in a long term.
+1 Reply
katyusha ja.piotr.bor
@ja.piotr.bor, I also have a feeling that the recent small bounce won't be enough in the long-term, and now also thinking of the very recent problems on binance now, being the 4th largest BTC trading platform, frozen for another 11 hours, interesting developments
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