I think it's now fully confirmed that a bear market started, as per the long term signals in BTCUSD's 2 month timeframe chart. I draw a couple possible scenarios, overall what matters is the general idea, not the specific path. We will trade each swing, with our remaining exposure to crypto, which is now reduced to 25% of net worth max, to let it grow from there once again.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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We covered our shorts, cost basis on chart, was a 20% position we had. Bought back spot holdings... Potential upside targets for BTCEUR if we do get a trend signal
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Speculating on a way for price to act here at support...BTCUSD chart
I added at 7846 eur.
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Holding above the last CTFC meeting level is constructive here...Last day of the recent decline today...
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I sold margin and spot longs here to be safe. We could short if we break below yesterday's or today's low, the daily uptrend could be a failure and this price pattern here be more of a sideways non-trend/triangle We can reenter if breaking up...
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Went short:
Entry 11344
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9150 eur
Trade closed manually
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Short covered, still in cash.
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BTCUSD could turn bullish once more here, we wait and see
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We can get a buy signal here within 25 minutes, tight stop...BTCUSD chart If we do break over 10150, things will look great for bulls again.
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'[18:00, 3/7/2018] Let's buy our spot BTC back here, if we break lower, we will hedge or go back to cash 7901.2 EUR / 9765.2 USD [18:12, 3/7/2018]BTCEUR: We bought back at our old long cost basis, except now we have 17% more BTC roughly '
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This could be how things pan out, if we do move higher from here in BTCUSD
Trade closed manually
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Took a small loss, but will reenter long when safe...or simply short if we get an entry. In cash for now. Lost 1.1%.
I'm amazed at how often and how fast you turn from an extreme bull to an extreme bear when it comes to BTC. I realize market moves and you as a trader have to adjust to it, but you can't move from an extreme to an extreme like that. That's not adjusting. That's just confusion.
In the next few months you'll probably change sides a few more times from expecting 60k usd to expecting super bearish scenarios. Doesn't make sense at all.
Never become addicted to dogma. As a working definition, dogma = a belief that takes on a life of its own, making YOU serve IT instead the other way around.
Pay attention in the here & now, receive new information openly & adjust accordingly. Adapt, or die.
In the words of Chuang Tzu:
"The perfect man employs his mind like a mirror. It refuses nothing, it grasps nothing. It receives, but does not keep."
--
I respect Ivan's analysis especially for changing his opinion as the market changes itself. Good luck to you though!
@KRYPTOKRATES, I agree with you. And I don't see how what I wrote made you think I'm "addicted" or tied to any kind of belief or dogma. I'm well aware that the market is always right, and we as traders have to adjust based on the new data and price action that we observe.
My critic was, you can't "adjust" to the market by going from prediction of 60k usd to prediction of 400 usd (and vice versa) just like that, in a matter of days.
Those are two complete opposite extremes.
IvanLabrie
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@eyupium, you still didn't get my point. One thing is a possibility but another is a static prediction. My predictions have variables that help validate then step by step. To get to 60k (I had said 80) we would first need to go through multiple previous steps to further validate and confirm that. In which case I'd be very explicit with my forecast and give an entry and invalidation level, as well as a time duration of the move... Which I didn't do cause that was never confirmed.
wombocombod
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@eyupium, This is so true. You watch the candles go up, then up again, and you chase it, certain that that 20k option a you charted must be happening now. Then the next candle is down, then down again. Time to panic-sell!
IvanLabrie
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@eyupium, you failed to comprehend the message in all of my posts then. I've predicted the top of the 20 month rally in BTC for a good while, have been saying it should last until November-December 2017. What I couldn't predict was the exact shape of all the swings during the bear market. It could either go down to $442, or stay in a sideways and volatile range, but not going that low. What was certain was that there wouldn't be a big non-stop rally again for 20 months and that we wouldn't surpass the ATH by much, or if we did, we would retrace the rally afterwards.
Since then, I also checked the inflation adjusted BTC chart, in case it gave a different signal, since the dollar depreciated by 16% since BTC's inception, and it did...the chart suggested a bull run was possible until May this year, but, since we have more data from price action, I concluded that the signal from the inflation adjusted chart was invalid. To invalidate one thesis and validate the other, I need data, and for that, I will need to change my opinion accordingly to manage risk and profit from each swing.
Trends are possible in lower timeframes, but they are subjected to the direction set by longer term participants, which leave their mark in the long term timeframes. If they contradict each other, at one point, short term traders will lose steam and long term participants will send prices back in the direction -or lack thereof- of the current main trend.
In this case, I will break it down:
-2 month timeframe uptrend, expired Dec 2017. Implies: Sideways/bear market, potentially falling to $442, or staying sideways in a range defined by key levels of support, and intermediate term trend signals we may observe as we have more data. We can't predict the exact path before having more data from the actual sideways market price movement. We had it, we had a downtrend, that expired, followed by a daily uptrend currently active.
I try to think forward, using the rules of the trading system, so, I predict that if we go higher, we may either turn down again, and trend down once more, or if we break the level on chart at like 11658, we could rally higher, before turning down again, but ultimately, we're still under the influence of the main 2-month timeframe signal, which indicates market is SIDEWAYS/DOWN. So, it is extremely unlikely to get a non stop rally like we had since the bottom in 2015.
Before assuming I'm a confused fool who doesn't know what the heck's going on, ask some questions to understand trading and forecasting better.
eyupium
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@IvanLabrie, Either I failed to comprehend it, or you failed to communicate it properly. I've been following you for over a year. I trade stocks and I've been trading crypto market for 4 years. I'm well aware of different time-frames and trends within larger trends. I do not assume you're a "confused fool" as you put it. I respect both your analysis and opinion. But I did remark on what I saw in your published ideas recently (I'm apparently not the only one).
I'm also aware of your forecast of the top for BTC, and your expectation that the market will turn bearish/sideways for 20 month period. Very well, and you may be correct, time will tell. However, I wrote my remark above precisely because you saw the top, the trend reversed to bearish, and after the price went down, you kept trying to call the bottom. Once the bottom was in (for now), you then turned extremely bullish in your predictions (inflation-adjusted BTC or not), and negated your "20 month bear market" prediction, because you turned your target from 400 usd to 60.000 usd.
I only have problem with that last part. Turning from one extreme into the opposite extreme in a matter of days (there's no way that one week's price action we observed can swing the prediction so much).
Nevertheless, it may be that I (and many others) misunderstood your message. In that case, please accept my apologies.
Your charts and ideas are, in any case, very welcome, and I thank you for that.
IvanLabrie
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@eyupium, I think I know what confused you.
"and negated your "20 month bear market" prediction, because you turned your target from 400 usd to 60.000 usd."
I never negated the bear market scenario but if the inflation adjusted chart signal was valid (which now I think it isn't) price could have hit those levels and then crash spectacularly again. Even then, it wouldn't be a stable trend and would be retraced by 100% after that. I'd prefer a more calm and sideways range, as an investor, since it would be better in the long run and luckily it seems to be what we will get. A range between 5k and 25k for 20 months.
eyupium
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@IvanLabrie, That makes more sense now. Thank you for clarifying.
In the next few months you'll probably change sides a few more times from expecting 60k usd to expecting super bearish scenarios. Doesn't make sense at all.