Here is a larger view compared to my previous idea (see related link under this description):
The idea here is to show the difference between the great descending triangle that imposed its law in 2018
and the ascending triangle being formed!
THE DESCENDING TRIANGLE OF 2018:
The first, the descendant, is constituted like the isosceles triangle of a bearish line BUT also of a horizontal line and not bullish as on the isosceles.
This line of horizontal resistance - in force until November 14, 2018 - does not have as much force as the resistant bearish line, it is the latter which ends up pushing the value to the fall at the exit of triangle.
It was therefore a continuation pattern, that is to say, it was an intermediate phase in the evolution of a value that reinforced the Bearish tendency of early 2018.
Each line in the triangle must be confirmed by at least three points.
The volumes must decrease with time, the more we advance in the triangle, the more the volumes become weak, which was the case. The volumes must regain momentum at the triangle exit to validate the target, which was also the case from 11-14-2018.
The target is calculated in the same way as for the isosceles triangle (see methodology in my previous related idea).
THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE OF 2019:
All the interest of this idea is to show how much the big triangle in progress is fundamentally different from the big triangle of 2018! Now, the target price range is calculated as on the previous descending triangle : on the 3rd impact on the down line as I have shown on the graph. BUT with an opposite direction, this time up!
However, no bullish runaway, please! The target amplitude is of course proportional to the size of the triangle that generates it! In other words, the descending triangle (2018) was very large: the resulting dump on 11-14-2018 was therefore in his image, important! Conversely, the ascending triangle in progress is tightened: the pump that I therefore envisage if the volumes follow will be in the image of the latter, of low importance: ~ $ 5000 (~ September, 2019) !
DISCLAIMER: This is an educational analysis and not an investment advice! Follow only your own opinion. Invest only what you can afford to lose.
Trade closed: target reached
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wow! beaten personal record: bullish breakout of ascending triangle validated only half an hour after this publication!
Of course, my chart is defined in 1W (1 week), this beautiful green candle is not visible yet. But my target of $ 5000 was crossed at 5am!
How did you get the right 5k target, but miss the timing?
Some of your other charts are so spot on with the time, what was the difference with this one?
MaxHodler
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@CryptoTenX, Excellent question! I was the victim of a psychological bias bearish ... I had first drawn with the right timing, and when to publish... I added a longer timing because it seemed too incredible.
I already made this mistake more than 6 months ago (bullish bias: I already saw the potential to inspire me from 2014-2015, but I cheated by shortening the timing, error! You can have fun checking it going back to my first publications).
This time, nobody in my private sphere wanted to believe that it was going to pump so fast, I was influenced by the strong feeling bearish ambient and I cheated by lengthening the timing so that my idea is "psychologically" more assimilable ! Since this error of bad influence, I cut myself off from the world: you can see that I have nobody in "Following" on Tradingview, I don't consult any technical analysis not to influence mine. The news, the FUD, I also look at this with a distant eye. Because on the financial markets whatever they are, if it is difficult to completely get rid of your own emotions, it is even worse if we start paying attention to the fears or the euphoria of others :)
MaxHodler
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If you understood French (or with a good translator), you can consult the explanations on this subject that I had already given to the Commercial Director of Tradingview France, by clicking below:
MaxHodler
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*understAND (sorry)
CryptoTenX
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@Cryptor07, So you're saying that you are staying true to your original hunches, and you're not listening to anyone, or anything.
Good strategy ;)
And so this is why your latest analysis is showing that you see an imminent drop, that we've already reached the peak, that we can't breach 5250 so btc will fall back towards 3k, and over the next 3-4 months we'll make a double bottom, before start to move upwards. Do I have that right?
MaxHodler
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@CryptoTenX, Beware of the scale used: if you peak the summit announced by my last analysis, it is rather around $ 5800 (you can find this maximum of about $ 6K on all my long-term ideas published since December 2018).
This is the resistance created by the former support of June-November 2018, broken on 11-12-2018 ... you can trace it easily, like that of October-December 2014 which was the summit of the two 2015 Bulls Trap ;)
Always pay attention to the scale used: I establish the 2nd dip towards $ 3k ... not before mid-July 2019.
Finally, just as I do not listen to anyone, this advice applies to everyone and we must not forget my usual "DISCLAIMER":
Don't take what I say as gospel, I am not a traveler time that all-knowing O:-)
Some of your other charts are so spot on with the time, what was the difference with this one?