Long term Analysis for BTCUSD

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar

On a weekly scale, the market has been in a bearish trend for a long time before finding some support at the start of this year. From then on it has been predominantly sideways with choppy moves from 200-300. The market is moving in mini-swings as indicated by the regression lines in the weekly chart. For the bearish part of the swing, 5 SMA has been a hard resistance and has provided some good shorting opportunities at the highs. The Bollinger bands in the weekly chart have become parallel and contracted to a great extent, which means there is great scope for break out trades from this point.

On a long term scale, market hasn’t been able to break middle Bollinger band and 34 SMA for some time, but in June and July market has successfully overcome these resistances respectively and has been trading above them for 5th consecutive week. Though RSI remains around 50 without giving much indication, MACD has been trading above the signal line for some time now and is ready to cross the zero line. If the MACD crosses and remains above the signal line, it is a double confirmation for the launch of the bullish trend and would be an opportunity to capture good bullish moves. The proper entry points for such trades would be around 250-255 region, which has 34 SMA and middle Bollinger band as points of support. The targets could be high of previous month, upper Bollinger band of weekly and weekly 100 SMA .

If the market breaks out on the downside, then it would find good support around 214-227 region which houses weekly 200 SMA and lower Bollinger band . These prices have proven to be strong points of support in the past and are good targets for break out shorts at 250.

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