UPDATE: We had intense institutional accumulation at the key fibo level yesterday morning to stop the bloodletting (markdown), which initiated an automatic rally. This was evident by the increasing volume while the trend reversed. Unfortunately we breached the key fibo level, so for me, the odds are more likely we will test that level again, rather than attempt to form new all time highs. If we get another selling wave (markdown), it also looks likely that we will test another key fibo level formed by the March 2017 low :O at $2450. If we go there, this is my bear market confirmation which will move us closer toward validating a BiiG crown reversal (I will post a chart on this with further confirmation).
Currently, we have a set trading range (please see chart), defined support levels, and a downtrend line. If we experience declining volume moving throughout this trading range, I will take it as a good indicator institutional investors will likely sell and form another markdown leg to the next key fibo level OR the daily EMA200 on the chart (as of writing: $2650). Meanwhile, if we see consistent or increasing volume and break out of the downtrend line, this is my signal for the end of markdown and a resumption in markup activity. That being said, I will continue to be skeptical of the capacity to form new all time highs because we hit a key place on my chart. If I was a BIG investor ;) I would want to see a test of the demand/supply at the 2450ish level, or at the very least, around $2650.
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This crossroad is interesting...lets see what happens. We spring tested the sub-fibo support (tiny circle). Volume was low so it didn't provoke a markdown. I am expecting another upward test, which could break the descending channel. We actually broke this channel before at approx. $4350, but it failed to attract "effort" in the form of volume, and so it was a very loud sign of weakness. If we see this again: markdown. On the other hand, if we see good signs of effort its worth joining to ride it up to the previous point of weakness which just so happens to be the sweet spot above the 0.618 of the entire bearish swing from 5K.
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We broke out of the secondary descending channel with the upward test. Volume picked up, which was the sign to join the momentum. This is a rally to the MAX TP identified on the last chart. The "composite man" will decide to short the market around here on strength :P
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Looking a little bearish here ... hmmmm
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UPDATE:
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Roll the dice! BTC is in an interesting place here. We have fallen out of the rising wedge, creating a broader top, where in fact it could be the last point of supply before we head south. On the way down, though, we have a trading range support if you remember our journey to $5000, but before that a key fibo from the entire bearish swing from the latter level. If we want to break up, we have that thick trend line and a fibo resistance level. Keep in mind we are still in a downturn, so I'm still short :)
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If i had a lot of BTC, here is the ideal place to unload them ;)
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Broken out of the uptrend
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Looks bearish in the 1HR, but RSI is so low that its hard to foresee a fast drop.
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There is not much down here for support. We have a sub-sub-0.382 at $3400
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Yep, just slowly leaking... We are stuck at the 0.5 of the swing. Just like we were stuck at approx. $3975.
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We came back up over the key fibo level. This is at about the 0.5 of the swing from $4000.
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I want to point this out. See the possible triangle? October 1ish looks like a crescendo place on a lot of charts so we need to pay attention around here.
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Looks above the downtrend channel line. Confirmation is tricky here tho, because you have it at $4117, which is just below the fibo resistance :S Best to sit this one out i think for now.
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RSI looks to have made a selling signal here. I have added a few hidden fibo zones for your viewing. Bouncing off purple fibo areas is bullish. Breaching through key fibo levels is bearish.
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Tiny reversal?
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Broke upwards from the wedge! Here are some lines.
Trade closed manually
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Letting go of my long holdings as we reached the green MAX TP. If we continue and break beyond the 0.618 area I will get long again.For now, I'm out of all cryptos and waiting for the sub-crown reversal to complete or become invalidated.
@agency, Day 30 is the day for the closing of all the exchange houses of china. currently the bitcoin there is 600 dollars cheaper than the rest of the planet, so, on the 30th we will have a sales spill.
Trader6127
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@mozartc, if you take a look at this (coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ you will see that CNY volume is already super low. I would say its already priced in. The current market price action is following a correction pattern, thats all. :) I would completely ignore any news, it just pushes the price faster to its final destination.
mozartc
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@agency, so, according to what you tell me, all the volume that could push the value down has already been sold. Well, if it's true, then you're right. if you are wrong we will have a panic, otherwise we will reach 6k.
Trader6127
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@mozartc, The supply (volume) which you refer to as "panic" has been absorbed by market, yes. If more supply comes to the market it will be absorbed as well. There is too much money involved here for things to simply swing wild; things will follow an orderly flow. The big question right now, if whether large interests are done accumulating or distributing supply. If they have not finished accumulating they will push the price lower. If they have not finished distributing, they will push the price higher to a point where they are comfortable to sell.
What method are you using? Post a technical chart so everyone can take a look and scrutinize.
mozartc
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@agency, What method do I use? analysis of information. In analysis, no one is completely correct or completely wrong. hundreds of people thinking about the same possibility generates a concensual reason. this possibility is the most probable.
astrologychick
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@mozartc, The Chinese will NOT get rid of all their BTC, they will simply go to another market to trade such as Korea. There is no way on earth that the Chinese as a group are going to lose out on this market. Also, the Chinese Govt has a big political moment coming up in October and this is why they have cracked down on BTC. Once this has passed and they are not vulnerable any more then they will likely open up some of the rules around ICO's and BTC once again. China cannot afford to ban cryptos forever and they have NOT stopped all of the mining operations that are taking place there. China is not out of the game by any stretch, but the FUD won't subside until the end of October and that is when I expect to see things start to recover for real. China is only a small part of the market anyway.