Those who follow our channels for long know that we are supporters of Halving approaches. Today we bring you such an approach that we've done in the past only this time is on its simplest version as we focus on one thing: purely Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) bottom.
As you see, we have drawn all past three Halvings plus the next one (around March 2024) and plotted on them the Fibonacci Time Zones. The time-frame is on the weekly (1W). There is no need to overextend the analysis so I will be as concise as possible. The bottom on each of the past two Cycles has been around the 0.618 Fibonacci level (green vertical line). On the current Halving Cycle, the 0.618 Fib was on the week of September 19. That exact day and Sep 21 were the lowest levels for Bitcoin since the June 18 Low.
If history repeats itself, then we should see a steady recovery, still within accumulation limits, and bullish break-out by early next year. For comparison purposes I display the price action of the past two Cycles from the 0.618 Fib to the next Halving and plot it on today's until Halving 4. They do diverge as they traded on different fundamentals (Feb - April 2019 were on the Libra news) but they both reveal that a break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) would be the bullish break-out signal buyers look for.
So do you think that this Halving approach can time the bottom? If not where do you expect the bottom to be at? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Interesting theory but even BTC is affected by Macro. For those 3 days in Mar 2020 you could buy BTC for almost the price of the halving a few years before.
But what happens if march 2020 happens again now... well then we could be seeing 12K on BTC which puts it actually within the logarithmic channel.
Crypto-Swing
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Great to see someone else pick this up. You will no doubt notice that not only does this approach predict the bottom at or around the 0.618 time period, but it also predicts the top at or around the 0.382 time period. Last November was bang on schedule.
RighteousTA
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Money! I appreciate this zoomed out halving view. When you think about fundamentally what the halving is and does to the asset this makes a lot of sense.
SwallowPremium
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It can give us a good profit once the trade activates!!!
abudeem15
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does that mean the top and ATH will be end of 2025 ?