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Akil_Stokes
Aug 29, 2018 12:30 PM

BTCUSD - Long-Term Potential Gartley Pattern but DON'T DO THIS! Short

Bitcoin / DollarBitfinex

Description

I'm not a Crypto trader at all, but if you follow my work then you know that I like to stay sharp by performing technical analysis on random charts. (Which is a very good exercise that I recommend by the way).

Here on bitcoin is a potential Bearish gartley pattern. Typically I don't pay any attention to these pattern until price approaches the "B" leg, but I figured I'd share a longer-term idea today.

Now before you ask NO! NO! NO! You should not have the mindset of "well Akil since we know it's a gartley, shouldn't I just trade the C leg up in advance of the D completion?" NO! A POTENTIAL Gartley is just that, POTENTIAL. There is absolutely nothing that says the pattern will actually complete, so unless you have another reason to buy which happens to line up with the pattern projection, then you're doing nothing more than throwing money at the wall and hoping it sticks.

Akil
Comments
muaazster
Hi Guys ,

Sorry for asking this Dump question , Doesn't "C" point invalidates because it reaches beyond 88.6 , even it is a price rejection ,

Alexander_Nikitin
@muaazster, Rules vary form trader to trader. You should use the rule that you backtested.

In general, Scott Carney says that the C-point is valid if it stays within the range 0.382-0.886AB for standard gartleys and precise 0.618AB for perfect ones. He also advocates the +/-3% percent rule because it is almost impossible to find a pattern that mathces the alignments to the pip/tick. He doesn't specify what is this "3%". Is it a 3% of Ab-leg or it is a 3% of a stock price? I am inclined to think it is 3% of a stock price because of two reasons:
1) The "3% of a stock price" is a rule that is used by Larry Pesavento ("Profitable patterns for stock trading", "Fibonacci ratios with pattern recognition", "Trade what you see"). Larry Pesavento is said to be Scott Carney's teacher (Ross Beck, "The Gartley Trading Method").
2) Scott Carney emphasizes that the C-point should not go past the A-point. If the "3% rule" means the 3% of AB then it will never go past A (0.886+0.03=0.916)!! But if it means the "3% of a stock price" then it may go there.
Scott Carney's approach is called harmonic approach.

What is presented here is advanced formations approach. Although, it overlaps sometimes with the harmonic approach, it is very much different. Advanced formations approach has different pattern identification rules, different trade execution rules and different trade management rules. As a general rule for a gartley advanced formation the C-point stays valid as long as it doesn't go past the A-point. But some advanced formations traders are using the "not touch the 0.886" rule.
Its_Gui
@Alexander_Nikitin, amazing effort here, thank you !
Alexander_Nikitin
@Cryptosaurus_Rex, you are welcome:)
Akil_Stokes
@Alexander_Nikitin, Fantastic reply
muaazster
@Alexander_Nikitin, Thanks for your in detailed explanation on this .was searching for the perfect answer , Thank you again.
Akil_Stokes
@muaazster, Not per how I trade it, but I do know traders who use that as a violation point
muaazster
Thanks @Akil_Stokes, this will be beneficial info to my future trading ,
Akil_Stokes
@muaazster, No problem, at the end of the day no matter which method you decide to use. Make sure you test it. If you do that you'll never be wrong
pixi
Same here !
Which level are you targeting ?

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