I was expecting like the previous run from April to June where slightly higher target and retest of the high failed to materialised seems to be reflected on this occasion too. So the now that we have relatively a deeper retracement that is uncharacteristic as a pause in the uptrend suggests that we are back in cycle.
If correct then it is possible we could get a replica move to Jan to April and June to Oct not necessarily in size but only in form or look.
In any case we are looking for a 3 swing decline ie a zizgag. If there is a strong momentum we could see prices spike below the lower declining support line of the pattern as an overshoot. Otherwise 240 could be a possible zone to form this low.
Should that low hold then we could be either in a completely new cycle that could at least retest the Nov 2013 high in 5 swings formation (preferred) OR strong and significant zizg to deeper retrace of the entire move from Nov 2013 high to anticipated low.
Several time measurements are there not as prediction but possible juncture where both time and price could meet and give additional confidence in expected low if that line up.
Further we might see evidence of possible positive divergence in with price.
As always do you own analysis for your trade set-up. If you have alternative analysis please feel free to share the details.
Thanks for taking the time to read my analysis and comments.
In this case I clearly see the general shape of decline from Jan - April is similar (not the same) as the one decline from June - Oct. So if now we have a repeat of of those in the current decline in progress from recent high then it could serve as an outline of what to expect. The exact high and lows will differ both in time ans size, but nevertheless one complete will resemble the previous 2 this is often the case in adjacent swings of the same cycle in same direction. Of course this has had many using the price action of various swings leading up to Nov high and planting theses from subsequent retracement low and expecting it to do the same or repeat. This is a mistake in that it does not always repeat in that manner or whilst price is still correcting in opposite direction. Hope this helps.
We have been following this road map for some time and if correct we could now be nearing completion. However, in falling wedge pattern like this the ideal would be for price to stop at the lower trendline of the pattern. However, what sometime in volatile market wave v of this falling wedge could have throwover, it goes beyond the lower trendline. In such cases it should not go beyond the length of wave iii of the pattern. If this holds and our interpretation is correct then the low should above 49.
However other Fib confluences and possible MACD support line suggest that we could consider possible area around 200-175.
If this fails then we will have to review overall counts in Bear Cycle.
Hope this helps.
I'm trying to learn more about elliott waves and repeating pattern. Could you tell me if what I saw here was acceptable? http://imgur.com/PUItYUa Is that a sort of a bullish bat? Fib values seem to be correct more or less.
I expected the abc to play out and made a move on that after the 12345 we had this whole time since the ath, correct?
Regarding 1-5 wave move from ATH, I think you are confused as we do not have that even if it might casually look like 5 waves to recent low.
However from the recent low we have possible zigzag move up either as abc or wxy. Remains to be seen. We are probably in the second leg up of the zigzag just mentioned.
Other than that it is difficult to go into greater details to fully answer your question here.
Regarding bullish BAT, it is possible though I do not have specific knowledge of these Harmonic even though I do realise they are often reflected in EW counts.
Hope this helps.