DanV
Short

BTC - Reverts to Bearish Cycle in Final Leg

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Nothing much has changed in the general outline of the road map for quite some time as many of you will note. However, from the previous published chart the intermediate bullish cycle appear to have completed. The 450 - 480 target was narrowly missed. This appears to be accompanied with a hidden bearish divergence where we have HH in RSI but not the price of the two points under consideration.

I was expecting like the previous run from April to June where slightly higher target and retest of the high failed to materialised seems to be reflected on this occasion too. So the now that we have relatively a deeper retracement that is uncharacteristic as a pause in the uptrend suggests that we are back in bearish cycle.

If correct then it is possible we could get a replica move to Jan to April and June to Oct             not necessarily in size but only in form or look.

In any case we are looking for a 3 swing decline ie a zizgag. If there is a strong momentum we could see prices spike below the lower declining support line of the pattern as an overshoot. Otherwise 240 could be a possible zone to form this low.

Should that low hold then we could be either in a completely new bullish cycle that could at least retest the Nov 2013 high in 5 swings formation (preferred) OR strong and significant zizg to deeper retrace of the entire move from Nov 2013 high to anticipated low.

Several time measurements are there not as prediction but possible juncture where both time and price could meet and give additional confidence in expected low if that line up.

Further we might see evidence of possible positive divergence in RSI with price.

As always do you own analysis for your trade set-up. If you have alternative analysis please feel free to share the details.

Thanks for taking the time to read my analysis and comments.
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Close up view
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
BTW the actual lines are not necessarily the exact path and levels but rather an over outline of what to expect.
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ioxoi
2 years ago
Thanks for the update, I'm thinking in the same escenario, using the support at $360/ 2220CNY and a sort correction to $400 / 2420CNY and finally the last correction to $200-$275
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DanV MOD ioxoi
2 years ago
Excellent. Like they say, great minds think a like. LOL
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tuamen
2 years ago
Nice Chart Mate, I posted a weekly chart yesterday that identifies similar support and resistance levels,
Short Term Bear -  Long Term Bull
,let's see how she plays out. Good luck with your trades and thanks for sharing your ideas.
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DanV MOD tuamen
2 years ago
Yes, I did notice. Excellent chart. Thanks for sharing.
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magnesium
2 years ago
Thank you for your analysis DanV.
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Balancepumps
2 years ago
Hey compliments for charts, explain to me the negative divergence of RSI? not recorded a higher high?
thanks
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DanV MOD Balancepumps
2 years ago
This is hidden divergence. Normal one is where you have LL or HH on on price but not confirmed by RSI or similar momentum indicators. In contrast to this this is where in a larger trend we get a retracement in this this case overall bearish trend. We have a retracement where RSI momentum make high which exceeds the previous high corresponding to significant previous high in price. So a divergence develops where high momentum reading is not confirmed by price. Suggestion is that it will revert to continue with the prevailing larger trend. You could also do further reading of the subject to help you grasp the point. Hope this helps.
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Balancepumps DanV
2 years ago
ok, as I thought, but I had the confirmation of an expert. are short by $371 Tips Keep the position open?
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Stockman
2 years ago
LMFAO
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Balancepumps Stockman
2 years ago
LMFAO
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CryptOhio PRO
2 years ago
The $400 level is the make-or-break point - there is a longer term Head and Shoulders pattern (formed April - October 2014) that would put the BTC price at about $150 - $200. BUT, from watching the trading in live-time on OKCoin - the Chinese demand appears VERY strong! If they can push the price above $440 on strong volume, they may be able to send the price upwards for the coming months. I've had perfect trade set-ups where the price should go from $380 to $365, for example, and the Chinese completely absorbed the supply and sent the price to $395 instead - they've done this several times with MASSIVE momentum, so I do not underestimate their buying power. In my opinion, it makes sense for the price to go sideways in the coming months - (i.e. no more 10x moves...lol) 10x moves are possible when the marketcap is $50M, but now that the marketcap is ~$5B, a massive amount of capital would have to enter the space to get a substantial move. There are newer crypto-coins being released (with 50x the technology features) like Ethereum, and their marketcaps are only about $10M! The next HUGE moves will be the Bitcoin 2.0 coins that make their moves from the millions of dollars to the billions of dollars - (i.e. 1000x!!!)
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krako PRO
2 years ago
DanV any update? Thanks
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DanV MOD krako
2 years ago
Overall, we still appear to be following the roadmap on daily with both RSI and Stoch now reaching potential bounce zone as per the Chart here
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Additionally on the hourly, we appear to have 5 minor waves complete after breaking out of the triangle. If not complete then very close. So at least retracement bounce is due or could be anticipated before further weakness resumes. Hope this helps.
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DanLaffas DanV
2 years ago
Hi DanV, what are your thoughts on the resemblance between the daily and hourly charts which I have posted here:
Amazing similarity between H1 and Daily charts #BTC #Bitfinex
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DanLaffas DanLaffas
2 years ago
Is this a common occurrence in your experience?
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DanV MOD DanLaffas
2 years ago
It has been often observed that price action is fractal. That does not mean it it exactly the same at every point both in time and magnitude. However, you will note patterns on smaller time often repeat in larger or the other way as well.
In this case I clearly see the general shape of decline from Jan - April is similar (not the same) as the one decline from June - Oct. So if now we have a repeat of of those in the current decline in progress from recent high then it could serve as an outline of what to expect. The exact high and lows will differ both in time ans size, but nevertheless one complete will resemble the previous 2 this is often the case in adjacent swings of the same cycle in same direction. Of course this has had many using the price action of various swings leading up to Nov high and planting theses from subsequent retracement low and expecting it to do the same or repeat. This is a mistake in that it does not always repeat in that manner or whilst price is still correcting in opposite direction. Hope this helps.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Still following this as general outline as roadmap
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amazing_ilya DanV
2 years ago
what are these green zones?
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amazing_ilya amazing_ilya
2 years ago
repeating pattern - green - yellow-blue?
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DanV MOD amazing_ilya
2 years ago
Yes
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DanV MOD amazing_ilya
2 years ago
Green zones showing initial decline of the high then price retracing and sideways before declining in blue zones. So we have 2 previous cycles following that path, hence expectation is we could have repeat in the 3 cycle to complete the entire corrective cycle from Nov 2013 high.
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soap DanV
2 years ago
Hi, DanV , do you think we can see 240 in December?
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DanV MOD soap
2 years ago
It is possible, or it might spill into next year. Last decline took 4 months, so even is we assume we have less distance to travel from recent high to 240, it could at least take 2-3 months. that would put possible low into Jan/Feb 2015. Unless we see acceleration of price decline for this leg, which would be out of character since the rate of decline has been falling for each of the previous declines and as implied by the falling wedge. Hope this helps
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soap DanV
2 years ago
Thank you :)
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jacek.walewski.5 DanV
2 years ago
Any new charts?
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jangseohee
2 years ago
BTCUSD, double support to be tested
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DanV MOD jangseohee
2 years ago
Interesting, will take note. Thanks.
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jangseohee DanV
2 years ago
You are welcome Dan, but its a log scale :-)
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DanV MOD jangseohee
2 years ago
Yes I noticed thanks. Right scale type to give correct perspective f the price percentage change over the period in question.
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jangseohee DanV
2 years ago
Do you use linear or Log, Dan?
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DanV MOD jangseohee
2 years ago
On shorter time period like say last 6-12 and particularity where price change is not to big like 20-50% I tend to use arithmetic, non-log. But wherever we have price like BTC which in last 12 months have champed by nearly 75% or more, and prior to that also many multiples, use log scale.
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jangseohee DanV
2 years ago
Thank you for the tips
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DanV MOD jangseohee
2 years ago
YW. Glad I can it was helpful.
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Maddie
2 years ago
Wow first time in history that I like you chart Danster. Its looking good :)
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DanV MOD Maddie
2 years ago
Danster? You men me DanV? Not sure but if you do, thanks. Hope it works for you.
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Maddie DanV
2 years ago
Yeah that's what i mean ;p
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DanV MOD Maddie
2 years ago
Thankyou very much.
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Looks like wave 2 may be ending, with wave 3 of 5 of C starting shortly.
BTCCNY - Zoom in: Bull Trap Before Major Move Down
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Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO Unapologetic_Capitalist
2 years ago
My calcs for estimating the bottom (to end wave v of 5 of C) at around 1390 Yuan can be found here:

BTCCNY - Zoom out:  Bottom is Near (in time)
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DanV MOD Unapologetic_Capitalist
2 years ago
Thanks. Late Jan to Feb as possible early turn window. Assuming then that this cycle complete other wise this will only complete Larger wave A and go in to retracement to upside in Larger Wave B. Could in in this zone for several years.
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Completely agree. My biggest concern is that this is not the end of C, but rather, the end of A of some complex correction...oh how I hate corrections...lol

As always, thanks for your insight.
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DanV MOD Unapologetic_Capitalist
2 years ago
YW
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Pinkfloyd111. DanV
2 years ago
I personally have doubts that we are prepared for new ATH based on development of infrastructure, current state of btc and just this feeling that people are just too bullish. What are the signs and how do you tell if we are going to have only corrective wave B up?
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DanV MOD Pinkfloyd111.
2 years ago
Well, once we complete this cycle, we could either start a new bullish cycle to attempt a retest of ATH OR start larger wave B. In any case this is likely to be quite substantial as it could retrace some of the move from Nov 2013 high to where ever the final low will form. ie at least few hundreds dollars. That will likely involve some strong impulsive moves. So just based on that we would participate as appropriate and take note of how this will unfold. Impulsive 5 waves to ATH ot some sort of large zigzag overlapping waves that will help us to ascertain what cycle we are in. I would not particularly look to see if the fundamental will help but no doubt they will unfold as time go by and align with price actions over longer term. Hope this helps.
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Pinkfloyd111. DanV
2 years ago
It helps, thank you for your reply.
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DanV MOD Pinkfloyd111.
2 years ago
YW
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Bonkzilla
2 years ago
Simply amazing.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Hi All. Lot of you have been asking for an update. So here it is for what its worth.

We have been following this road map for some time and if correct we could now be nearing completion. However, in falling wedge pattern like this the ideal would be for price to stop at the lower trendline of the pattern. However, what sometime in volatile market wave v of this falling wedge could have throwover, it goes beyond the lower trendline. In such cases it should not go beyond the length of wave iii of the pattern. If this holds and our interpretation is correct then the low should above 49.

However other Fib confluences and possible MACD support line suggest that we could consider possible area around 200-175.

If this fails then we will have to review overall counts in Bear Cycle.

Hope this helps.

DanV

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HenrikLolsor DanV
2 years ago
Low above $49?? Are you kidding?
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DanV MOD HenrikLolsor
2 years ago
Not at all. It is a possibility. But more realistically for now I am saying 200 -175. However, may enthusiastic supporters have been expressing just that exact view and asking if I am serious since I was suggesting 400 and then 240. So just wishing it won't change anything in real life. One will need to see how this unfolds and what might seem illogical could get even more illogical. Thanks for your question.
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HenrikLolsor DanV
2 years ago
Wow... well, i'm buying in 185-200 area so I guess we atleast see a bounce around there?
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DanV MOD HenrikLolsor
2 years ago
Yep, could be good plan as any.
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HenrikLolsor DanV
2 years ago
BTW, what are your thoughts on $216 (bitstamp) being the bottom? I guess you don't fight the trend but seems like it very well could be a bottom to me
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DanV MOD HenrikLolsor
2 years ago
It is possible. The nature of the bounce might give clues if this low is significant or will be taken out on the way down.
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HenrikLolsor DanV
2 years ago
Thanks, I hope we'll see updates in the coming week(s)
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DanV MOD HenrikLolsor
2 years ago
Yes indeed.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
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Maddie DanV
2 years ago
Hidden bull div :)
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DanV MOD Maddie
2 years ago
It is possible, though in strong trending price action such as what we had recently, sometime these diversions could fail or you continue to get multiple diversions. ie it does not suggest that price action should reverse immediately on diversions. But good to watch it and see how it resolves. Thanks.
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Maddie DanV
2 years ago
Told yah :) it turned out good !
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DanV MOD Maddie
2 years ago
Yes indeed, thanks. The major question is where from here. I still don't think the low we formed recently is the final low yet. Specially the bounce of the low is not impulsive with 5 wave move.

So this is still a retracement and another leg to downside to follow. Not clear on how.
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Indeed, I'm watching the 100+-25usd area.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Quite possible. I am little cautious so for now 125-140 but will review the entire chart and I think low in the are of 100 is not out of question.
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TereMius
2 years ago
Hi Dan, thanks for your contributions.

I'm trying to learn more about elliott waves and repeating pattern. Could you tell me if what I saw here was acceptable? http://imgur.com/PUItYUa Is that a sort of a bullish bat? Fib values seem to be correct more or less.

I expected the abc to play out and made a move on that after the 12345 we had this whole time since the ath, correct?
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DanV MOD TereMius
2 years ago
Thank you for your comments and appreciation.

Regarding 1-5 wave move from ATH, I think you are confused as we do not have that even if it might casually look like 5 waves to recent low.

However from the recent low we have possible zigzag move up either as abc or wxy. Remains to be seen. We are probably in the second leg up of the zigzag just mentioned.

Other than that it is difficult to go into greater details to fully answer your question here.

Regarding bullish BAT, it is possible though I do not have specific knowledge of these Harmonic even though I do realise they are often reflected in EW counts.

Hope this helps.
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TereMius DanV
2 years ago
Ye it does, thanks for replying. Keep up the great work. :)
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DanV MOD TereMius
2 years ago
Thanks. YW
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patrick.gregory.775 DanV
2 years ago
Hey Dan. Any advice on the current upswing? Do you think we may have secured a bottom?
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DanV MOD patrick.gregory.775
2 years ago
All we can say for now is that we have intermediate bottom. How far this bounce will go is not entirely clear right now. But we will revisit the recent low and possibly make new lower low in due course. I need more price data now to see how my wave counts on Daily roadmap above needs to be adjusted.
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khoilevt DanV
2 years ago
what's new for today DanV
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DanV MOD khoilevt
2 years ago
Possible a retrace before another leg higher. Only in the short term. Beyond that need more data to help clarify.
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CRX DanV
2 years ago
DanV, do you think we are not going to fall below 200 again and mid-term bottom has been found? What your intuition tells you? :)
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DanV MOD CRX
2 years ago
The picture has become rather cloudy so it is difficult to make definitive comment except that we have not formed a lasting low yet. That doesn't mean that we cannot see 320 are retested again. I am waiting for bit more clarity before reviewing the main daily chart we have been following as our road map for some time. So monitoring for now.
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alex.falko.7 PRO DanV
2 years ago
DanV, any update??? SHould we expect a move up before futher going down?
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khoilevt
2 years ago
Hello guys . do you think today at bitcoin ?
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Please see updated chart published today at
BTCUSD - STILL REMAINS IN OVERALL BEARISH CYCLE

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oaksacorn DanV
2 years ago
5 and done?
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bays47 DanV
2 years ago
Thanks DanV for posting these charts, I'm a newbie to tradingview and trading bitcoin. What a fantastic website!
I watched your Youtube video yesterday and learn t heaps.
Thank you for your time and effort. cheers!
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DanV MOD bays47
2 years ago
You are welcome. Thanks for your appreciation and I am glad it is helpful to you.
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