BTC currently sits at a major crossroad. We just broke down and negatively retested a very pivotal MA which has three times in the past sent BTC tumbling down 46 - 58 percent (scroll back to 2014 and see the same event play out).
Should history be anything to go by, we should see a down leg of approximately 40 percent, which aligns almost accurately with the 61.8 retrace of the move from 2020 lows.
Can we move upward from here? Yes! But we would first need to reclaim the MA, and in this regard, the statistics are against us. BTC has failed to regain it in all instances.
Moving on to technicals, we can see BTC clearly breaking down a huge bear flag. I'm not calling doomsday here, but all I'm saying is to exercise caution with longs at this point.
In summary, anywhere between 23k and 27k is very possible, maybe immediately, maybe a bit later in the year.
This is not financial advise in any manner. DYOR and manage your risk properly.
Best of luck from Commodore!
Trade active
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So, the top of my target range got hit (27k), and we even went as low as 24k on some exchanges. Hope my idea isn't looking so stupid anymore?
I still expect my second target to be reached in the coming weeks, or at the very least, a retest of the May 12 lows. Don't be too bullish just yet!
We might even go as low as 20k, but I doubt if the stacked buy orders on exchanges near that level will ever allow us really get there.
Remember to always follow your strategy to the letter, and avoid trading with emotions.
Much regards from Commodore!
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Almost there... I'd be taking profits along the way to 23k if I were you!
Trade closed: target reached
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Final target for this setup has been reached. Time to wait for the market to stabilize and spot new opportunities. I'll try to keep you updated.
nice post, thank you. do you think be possible drop under 28k?
Commodore3
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@arviiine, Very very possible. though it'll most likely be just a wick if we manage to get there. I'll personally start loading up again when we approach the 30k region
jdo85
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the last stand.. how dramatic 🤣
randc70
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@jdo85, it did its job to get you here. This is a strong theme for BTC, massive bear moves over time, good to see someone spotting a correlation with specific things on the chart.