In this video I do the normal routine. Talk trough the trends, volumes, some technical levels based on price, FTX and Deribit Futures, Perpetual Swaps v Spot Basis, Funding Rates, Open Interest, Liquidations, Bitfinex Long/Short Ratios and volumes on CME and BAKKT Futures forward contracts.
More reasons to be bullish than to be bearish at the moment but at the end of the day... the trend is you friend.
Now is time to pay attention to what is going on in the lower timeframes as it will affect the Daily and push the weekly/bi-weekly out of bearish waters. Breaking the 36-37k is particularly important.
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Bitfinex Long/Short Ratios keep flipping back n forward.
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Futures and Swaps
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Notice that since yesterday meta data coming from futures are seeing some changes since my video. If this continues we may se another leg down.
Trading ranges are designed to make everyone unhappy if everyone start getting bullish.
What a great market view! I really enjoyed looking at your reasoning. I'm long, hope it comes true
D7R
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@robe7956, thanks for the tv coins 🤝 Bitcoin is macro bullish. During this trending range we can see all sort o shenanigans. If too many people turn bullish we are likely to come down another leg until general fear settle in. I do not recommend be long or short based on what I say. My viedo is to point out macro view reasoning. Overall most signs are bullish but in a trading range things can flip if smart money doesn't get their liquidity ratios satisfied. IF we trend bellow 32-31. That wont look good but generally speaking at a macro level we are in accumulation until something significant change like rates turning positive and basis trading significantly above spot. I do still see a chance of 25k levels. While we dont trade above 36k
ForexTrendline
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When it comes to Bitcoin it really is about volumes! Great analysis, I love it! Have a look at ours
D7R
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@ForexTrendline, yes I see something like this happening. that 31-32k revisit before bouncing strong. .
Thanks for your analysis. I have my doubts though that this could reverse at this point but it's BTC, so anything can happen. Why I don't think it will reverse from here:
(1) There's a rising wedge on the 1h time frame and it just broke out, retesting previous support now.
(2) You can clearly see an M forming in the 1h, 4h, and 1D time frame. The current retest of previous support is basically the last chance for the bulls to reverse the overall trend from here. If they can't push the price higher in the next few hours, chances are high that we will meet the bearish price target of the rising wedge at 28k. Plus, if it closes a daily below 30k, it's more or less over and we could see another panic sell.
(3) According to the BITFINEX BTCUSDSHORTS chart, there aren't that many shorts open. In fact, it's near ATL. However, there's a record high of longs open if you look at the BTCUSDLONGS chart. "The market takes the most amount of money of most people most of the time." - The majority of traders are wrong. If BTC longs are at record highs and shorts at ATL's, I think the chance is very high that we get another big liquidation event before an actual reverse.
(4) Currently, lots of FUD news around BTC to support the overall bearish trend. With BTC difficulty dropping as low as last Mai-June 2020, we still don't know what or if this has an effect on the price because historically, such a big drop in the BTC difficulty has never happened before.
Just my opinion but let me know what you guys think about it. Open for discussion.
D7R
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@mko1717, I don't like either how those longs are in the the 96% dominance range while shorts at ATL again. That is generally not a good sign but these finex metric can also flip very quickly as i show here
lolItsLaz
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Just remember that a big part of bitcoin shooting up in price so high was partly due to Elon shilling it, I think that bitcoin is trading at its fair price to hype behind it and in my opinion still overpriced. It will probably stay on this range for a bit. BTC does not produce anything so its value will not be based on how well its products do like a stock would, it is more about the hype behind it. The only thing that will make it shoot up again will be if more people started believing in it. Or maybe some really popular person shilling it like Elon did.