Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to have a constant cyclical behavior, repeating certain aspects over and over again during each Cycle. The model that I will quickly analyze on today's post is no different and it involves the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
** Similar dips and break-out durations ** On this 1W time-frame, you can see that during the past two Cycles, the price dipped -65% (Jan 12 2015) and -63% (December 10 2018) after the last rejection on the 1D MA200, before making the Bottom of the Bear Cycle. Also, the times from the rejections until the price broke again above the 1D MA200 are comparable, as it respectively took 33 weeks (231 days) to break above it on June 29 2015 and 36 weeks (252 days) on the April 01 2019 1W candle.
As you see, those are roughly identical numbers and continue to hold during the current Cycle as well, as the drop from the last 1D MA200 rejection (March 28 2022 candle) to the June 13 2022 Low, has also been -63%, making it a bottom according to the model. If this process is fulfilled, then the price will break above the 1D MA200 again by the week of December 05 2022 the latest.
** Williams Alligator showing the Bottom is in ** An additional indicator that brings value to this model, is the Williams Alligator used on a 3W time-frame here. As shown during the past two Cycles, the market Bottom was made right when the green trend-line (lips) crossed below the blue trend-line (jaw). Similarly when the green trend-line crossed back above the blue, BTC had already started rising into the new Bull Cycle and that was an indication that the first rally of the Cycle made its top.
So do you think that this model will be repeated once more, meaning that the market has already bottomed and Bitcoin will break above the 1D MA200 by the week of December 05 2022 the latest? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
P.S. Because the chart has the added element of the Williams Alligator plotted and pinned to scale Z, it is not constant and may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
Check this guy's charts in the last 10mos. All the charts were Bullish, aka perma-bull. Meanwhile, price has been going the other way.
BDG
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You're saying when the William Alligator green goes below blue it is the bottom. But as we all know, Green below Blue is a bearish indicator. Many people assume that because BTC in the past only stayed below its Weekly 200 MA for a few weeks, or that the Williams Alligator has green below blue for only a few weeks, that BTC will pop up again this time as well. I'm hoping you're right. But just because it happened in the past 2 or 3 times certainly raises our expectations. But BTC doesn't have pop up after the Williams Indicator turns bearish (green below blue). It could keep going down to reach 12k or 8k. I think it would be much safer if we wait until green moves above blue before going bullish. Picking bottoms is dangerous. Much like standing on the sidewalk underneath a piano that is being lifted to the 3rd floor using a block and tackle. When that piano starts to fall (green below blue), I'm getting out of the way regardless of the color of the rope! LOL
wargolynch
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@BDG, If the alligators never ate you in the past, they will let you in peace forever! Just take a swim as there is really not any reason for BTC to drop lower... Not any! This we know without ever looking at the Ganges' volumes and 75' like USCPI... We also chose to change our initial landmark from ATH to first retest of the MA200 whereas we'll chose the second one in the past... It all makes sense! Can't you see?
BDG
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@GreenValleyTrading, I'm too sober to make any sense of it.
Tradersweekly
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No bottom is in. Indeed, we are on a way to the bottom.
TheNewsCrypto
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Good Idea
TheCryptCrow
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It’s funny how in the past 6 months we never saw you post anything but long. Says a lot