If you check out the Bollinger bands on the weekly BTC chart, you would see how over extended they become when BTC hits its all-time highs.
Using a basic analysis on the Bollinger Bands bottom (lows) at each all time high, gives a very good projection/indication of the lowest price range of BTC in each following bear market.
Projecting the above theory to the December 2017 bubble, we can project that the BTC bottom will be around the $1350 price (ranging between $950 and $1755) within the March-May 2019 window.
My best guess is a quick shot down to the $1350 target from the 3k levels sometime in late Feb/early March, followed by a swift U-shaped recovery back to the 3k levels in April to begin the new consolidation phase & Bull market...
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Furthermore, the market sentiment that the bear market is over and that the bottom is in is still a bit too strong. REAL depair and loss of interest hasn't FULLY kicked in yet for the majority of retail investors. A final capituation to the 1K levels makes sense. This is not to say that BTC can have a relief rally prior to the final capitulation.
Can you remove those arrows? They're blocking the text. Ta.
Leb_Crypto
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@HanktheTank, ah yes you're right. I thought I sent those arrows to the background with the text on front. Display after publishing the idea seems a bit different than before.
The idea I'm showcasing is simple with those arrows and text:
I'm show casing that the lowest point of the bollinger bands at each BTC bubble top, corresponds (approximately) to the lowest BTC point of the subsequent bear market.
So, expect a final & quick capitulation to the 1K-1.5k levels sometime in the coming 2-3 months... the market will find its bottom there, and then head straight back up to the 3k-4k levels (U-shaped recovery).
Hope this helpful.
xs2nilesh
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@Leb_Crypto, Got your idea. but wondering how you came up with possible timeline of final capitulation. Is 2-3 months a guesstimate or has some theory behind it?
It’s mainly an educated guesstimate, taking the total lengths of previous BTC bear markets as well as final capitulation candles at the very end of each bear market. So, yeah, a guess with some theory based on historical timeframes.
Leb_Crypto
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Furthermore, the market sentiment that the bear market is over and that the bottom is in is still a bit too strong. REAL depair and loss of interest hasn't FULLY kicked in yet for the majority of retail investors. A final capituation to the 1K levels makes sense. This is not to say that BTC can have a relief rally prior to the final capitulation.