Possibility vs Probability. In Jan I charted out the possibility of revisiting the 20k price range. Looks like that idea was the one the market decided to take.
Here is the link to that chart:
I use Elliott Wave style TA and have determined this is likely the bottom, or very close to the bottom, of the most recent bear market beginning November 2021.
My reasoning: -Counting waves since the beginning of BTC's inception, wave 1 ended at roughly 20k price in late 2017. -Wave 3 started March 2020 (COVID begins) -Using Fib extension tools, I've determined that Wave 3 has likely finished, and in fact exceeded its typical extension of 4.23 (blow off top) - Since wave 3 has finished, we are likely in the C leg of Wave 4. - Elliott Wave rule - Wave 1 and Wave 4 cannot overlap. - Crypto Elliot Wave rule - Experience in the crypto market says they can but only *somewhat* -BTC has now intersected with the 200 week MA. In the past, BTC either finds support, or only briefly dipped below it.
Strategy: I've taken a position at the current BTC price of 21k. Since we know Wave 1 and 4 can overlap in crypto, and we know BTC can move below the 200 week MA, I've always set up buy positions at 16k and 13K, just in case. Using a fib trend extension (starting since the beginning of BTC), the likely target for BTC is 85k. Even if BTC were to drop to something crazy, like 10k, the risk/reward is 6:1.
Even as I write this, BTC dropped to 19.3k, an even better price.
As for what comes after the 85K price target is reached? Sadness. But thats for another chart. You eagle eyed Elliott Wavers can prob already spot what comes after 85k, already on this chart.
good Luck