After a strong few weeks we have found the 8500 level impassable and the selling pressure has pushed us back down in a corrective move, the question we need to be asking is this a healthy correction or are we heading back down to retest the recent breakout. If we break below this level I will be switching my long term bias to bearish, as it will signal the latest breakout was just another fakeout rally.
Current state of affairs is posted on the chart, if you use a simple crossover strategy the 5/10 has signalled a short but we are still long if you follow the 10/25, Backtesting on the daily for both these over the last 18months on xbtusd has proved quite profitable, especially with the 5/10ma strategy.
Good Luck
G'day
Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.
Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.
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Small rally expected
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Note: I don't study Elliot Wave theory in detail, I am just using the impluse 1-5 as an example of possible movements not an indicator of exact retracement levels
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Still in Accumulation, the mistake was in the interpretation, the srping was just a secondary test, it is possible that wont see a spring or a shake out, obviously this is on a smaller TF, I believe or should I say am guessing that this accumulation will lead to the last impusle wave on the daily but time will tell. Especially with the Okex close drawing near, we could see a massive sell off. d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/market_analysis/wyckoff3/wyckoffaccumulation2.png
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Looks like it is distribution after all, still can be a spring/shake out ( which goes much deeper. I am hedged, will close long at a loss under 7200 and let the short run till near 6k... Hardly and liquidity below 7.2
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Looking at the higher time frame 4hr chart our accumulation on the 15min fits in nicely with the larger time frame distribution pattern. Check BTC history, these patterns just keep repeating.
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Note: this sign of Weakness can droop further yet. This is just an indication of price cycle
@Paulyz, Thanks Pauly, I try to teach where I can, instead of just giving signals.
SchultzeTrades
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disbelief, ofc.
SchultzeTrades
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@SchultzeTrades, disbelief is the best indicator to find a bottom
TroyByrne
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@SchultzeTrades, If that works for you, take it and run. I am still long December futures but short spot, I also picked up a tasty Down contract (Under $7500) for when we were sitting at 8150-200 at a nice premium as a hedge, which has worked out nicely. I find the 5/10 cross on the daily is a good trade, over 80% when I backtested it with Ninja.
SchultzeTrades
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@TroyByrne, oh it works for all if it really happens, are we at that stage yet? actually ofc, noone knows it but many do claim to do. those we should call what? fools? miracles? ah well whatever dumb tools want to believe in... money at end is there on the street.. we do grab it and thats it! enjoy being a wulf and be authentic! everything else is nonsense!