So that raises the question: What does the market want? On a , the market has been trending down for some time now, and my indicators are still saying the weekly trend is DOWN. Solidified by the fact that we failed to break the weekly up at 310, which would have changed the weekly trend from DOWN to UP. Bearing in mind the larger trend, we come to the 12H chart:
On this chart, I have labeled what I believe to be the most sensible count that I came up with, which is a horizontal triangle. Here are a couple of reasons why this count makes the most sense to me:
- Wave A is most likely a three
- Wave C momentum is relatively weak compared to Wave A
- Wave A top is still in-tact.
- Fibonacci Time and Price targets are within normal guidelines for Waves A, B, & C
The predictive targets for triangles are relatively hard to develop, however, on my chart I have made an attempt at predicting the end of Wave c of D and wave E. Wave E in particular is very difficult to target, however, once it is completed we will definitely get a major swing down into the 100s or possibly double digits. I have labeled on my chart with green, yellow, and red dashed lines possible major support levels. Which one we will stop at I am uncertain of until we are closer to that point. However, there is a high probability we will stop at or near one of those lines based on Fib extension targets.
Once this chart is resolved we could end up getting another one of Bitcoin's famous Moons™ I think this is actually more likely to be the final doom that I mentioned in my first chart. My time-targets for the end of the major cycle degree Wave 4 start around April 20th, that doesn't necessarily mean that is when we are going to begin the major uptrend, but it is likely that once we've gone past that date that bitcoin will be ready for the next major cycle Wave 5, which will happen sometime before the end of the time target in August. My guess is that we start the next Moon™ in June.
Important Note: This chart is INVALID if we break 294 and particularly 310.
I see the bigger count as a triple zigzag. There was good potential here for this to end the downtrend as a double zigzag and begin the next major uptrend, but so far it seems to have failed, meaning we need another wave down to satisfy the institutional bears. This will, most likely, exhaust the major downtrend and allow us to begin the long journey into the stratosphere.
It's really hard to say though, especially because of the massive lack of data. The main reason I think that the nov-dec peak is wave (3) is because of the sheer amount of momentum it has compared to the other waves. Generally wave 3 has the strongest momentum of all the three waves when viewed at the right time-frame. So mostly just based on that it was a wave 3. But it's really difficult to say, and relatively irrelevant because we know its going up on this scale, we will just have to wait and see to find out how much. :)