The best advice I could ever give anyone about the market is to "Want What the Market Wants."Do not want what you want, that will produce anxiety and doubt. Align your personal beliefs with that of the market and then trading will flow like a calm river of success.
So that raises the question: What does the market want? On a weekly timeframe, the market has been trending down for some time now, and my indicators are still saying the weekly trend is DOWN. Solidified by the fact that we failed to break the weekly up fractal at 310, which would have changed the weekly trend from DOWN to UP. Bearing in mind the larger trend, we come to the 12H chart:
On this chart, I have labeled what I believe to be the most sensible Elliott Wave count that I came up with, which is a bearish horizontal triangle. Here are a couple of reasons why this count makes the most sense to me:
Wave A is most likely a three
Wave C momentum is relatively weak compared to Wave A
Wave A fractal top is still in-tact.
Fibonacci Time and Price targets are within normal guidelines for Waves A, B, & C
The predictive targets for triangles are relatively hard to develop, however, on my chart I have made an attempt at predicting the end of Wave c of D and wave E. Wave E in particular is very difficult to target, however, once it is completed we will definitely get a major swing down into the 100s or possibly double digits. I have labeled on my chart with green, yellow, and red dashed lines possible major support levels. Which one we will stop at I am uncertain of until we are closer to that point. However, there is a high probability we will stop at or near one of those lines based on Fib extension targets.
Once this chart is resolved we could end up getting another one of Bitcoin's famous Moons™ I think this is actually more likely to be the final doom that I mentioned in my first chart. My time-targets for the end of the major cycle degree Wave 4 start around April 20th, that doesn't necessarily mean that is when we are going to begin the major uptrend, but it is likely that once we've gone past that date that bitcoin will be ready for the next major cycle Wave 5, which will happen sometime before the end of the time target in August. My guess is that we start the next Moon™ in June.
Important Note: This chart is INVALID if we break 294 and particularly 310.
How do you view the triangle in the bigger picture decline? Do you see it as wave 4 of a five wave move down from the 453 high in November?
And thanks for the zen market wisdom - "Want What the Market Wants."
Intuit
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Hey I appreciate the comment.
I see the bigger count as a triple zigzag. There was good potential here for this to end the downtrend as a double zigzag and begin the next major uptrend, but so far it seems to have failed, meaning we need another wave down to satisfy the institutional bears. This will, most likely, exhaust the major downtrend and allow us to begin the long journey into the stratosphere.
Kappy
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I agree with and think the W-X-Y-XX(triangle)-Z is solid count for the decline.
With limited view of your big picture count I have to disagree that this is a 4th wave correction. Where does your wave (1) top?
Intuit
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Here's an old mtgox chart. I was thinking Wave (1) was way back in 2011 when we hit $30. You could be right though, this could be wave (2) instead of wave (4), meaning that the next wave will be even bigger than the Nov-Dec bubble. It seems that only time can tell at this point. "May you live in interesting times." -Ancient "Chinese" Curse
Kappy
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My reasoning to interpret this long-term count as a complete fives is that you can identify it on non-log scale too. Granted if you're interpretation is correct that will be easily noticeable on a non-log scale as well...
Intuit
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That would be epic mate. Super cycle wave 3 :D
It's really hard to say though, especially because of the massive lack of data. The main reason I think that the nov-dec peak is wave (3) is because of the sheer amount of momentum it has compared to the other waves. Generally wave 3 has the strongest momentum of all the three waves when viewed at the right time-frame. So mostly just based on that it was a wave 3. But it's really difficult to say, and relatively irrelevant because we know its going up on this scale, we will just have to wait and see to find out how much. :)
pat71ck
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seems legit
Intuit
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UPDATE: Triangle broken but it looks like Wave D is bottoming out right here.
Kappy
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I lean with the triangle scenario. Alternately, if the blue support line is broken this could also be an A-B-C with a truncated wave C to mark the end of XX.
Intuit
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Indeed. The problem I see with the flat is that flat's wave b usually go at least 0.764 of a. It would be a flat with a truncated b and c. Either way the bigger trend is down. And technically the triangle isn't broken until we break 214 :)
And thanks for the zen market wisdom - "Want What the Market Wants."