BTCUSD: Contracting Triangle 4th Wave Ending on July 15-18th

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We are currently in a corrective 4th wave of a bullish five wave pattern up that should result in price reaching above the top of the 3rd wave (789.78)

The fourth wave appears to be a five wave contracting triangle which will conclude on July 15-18th at which point the fifth wave up should commence.

Charting the 4 hour contracting triangle (thin green line) would expect the the triangle to converge on July 15th; however, several other factors are pointing more towards a July 18th convergence:

  • Timing of the ABCDE corrective waves would put the end closer to the 18th.
  • The fibonacci time ratio of 1.0 of the 3rd wave is on the 18th.
  • July 18th would make a perfect opportunity for the (E) wave to bump off the Ichimoku cloud .

Note: Keep in mind that it is common for an ABCDE pattern's E-wave to false breakout therefore it would not be a surprise if the E wave broke below the triangle before starting the wave (5) higher.
Can E wave breakout above the triangle and come back down into the triangle and actually breakout to 5th wave?
The (E) wave is going down so it would breakout down. Today's move up should conclude the (D) wave exactly as anticipated. As long a a the (D) wave high is lower than the (B) wave high then we're in a contracting triangle. If the (E) wave does false breakout it'll move substantially below the triangle before spiking upwards.
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