BTC Weekly RSI Divergence: Is a 2026 Bottom Forming?

Bitcoin is currently at a critical point on the weekly timeframe. The chart highlights a striking similarity between the 2021 market top and the recent 2025 peak, where price made a higher high while the RSI formed a lower high, creating a bearish divergence. This same signal preceded the major 2022 bear market.

RSI
After the 2025 peak, BTC has corrected sharply and is now testing a major support zone around the weekly moving averages. While the decline has been significant, a confirmed long-term bottom has not yet formed.

- Price: Potential move below the February 2026 low.
- RSI: Currently near oversold territory on the weekly chart.
- Bullish Divergence Setup: If BTC makes a lower low while RSI forms a higher low, a bullish divergence would be confirmed, similar to the signal that marked the 2022 bottom.

Bullish Scenario

- BTC sweeps below the previous low.
- Weekly RSI holds above its prior low and creates a higher low.
- A bullish divergence forms.
- This could signal the end of the correction and the beginning of the next major uptrend.

The weekly RSI bearish divergence that appeared near the 2025 peak has already played out with a significant correction. The next major signal to watch is whether Bitcoin can form a weekly bullish divergence, similar to the setup that marked the 2022 cycle bottom.

Until price makes a lower low and RSI makes a higher low, the bullish divergence remains unconfirmed.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.