A few reasons for this bearish outlook. Mostly comparing 2017 to the present day together with study on multiple time frames.
The blue line on the above 1-day chart is our bull market support 21-week moving average. Fear will likely be high around the time price action approaches it. This will be an excellent moment to pick up some discounted Bitcoin.
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Noticed a lot of 'buy the dip' behaviour.
Circled in orange below is the Stochastic RSI. If you're wondering what dip to buy, wait until the Stochastic RSI is rotating and crossing up 20. Right now it is facing downward, you're only burning cash at this moment.
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PS: I know I said 'mid-March' above but at the rate we're going we might get there by mid-week! Which is fine, just wait for the rotation in Stochastic RSI.
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Breakdown from rising wedge. Price action might rise to test resistance. Notwithstanding a retest the daily chart is exceptionally bearish. Look at the Stochastic RSI crossing down under 20.
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Mid-March has come and gone, the conditions of the original idea are now void.
Got to 43k in early March.
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Although closed were this idea still opened the target would now be ~48K
I'm out for now, market is due to a correction a long time ago. Retail buying at ATH fomoing or holding and being greedy. Institutions and big pockets delaying the inevitable. I'll buy again when blood is running down the streets, at least 25% retracement. Good analysis. keep it up.
UnknownUnicorn15583116
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@Yedian, why would you sell a deflationary asset - which only ever goes up in value long-term - for fiat money which is inflationary?
without_worries
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@jkhaui, Simple answer: So we can have more of them.
Take advantage of these opportunities when they come along. Will only happen 2-3 times per year.
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@without_worries, haha yeah, good answer. Although I get the feeling that this time is "different" (I know, I know...)
Seems like everyone has the same plan (sell when they think it's the top, anticipating a big dump and buying back the bottom) which makes me believe it won't happen.
I just think that there's too much big money in btc now - whether it's corporations or billionaires hedging their wealth - and these hands have no intention of selling anytime soon. If you watch the order books too, it doesn't seem like we're anywhere near a top. There's not much crazy volatility; just a pattern of steady accumulation alongside dips which are getting smaller and smaller.
without_worries
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@jkhaui, This time it is different... I wish.
Every moment the dollar is bullish, Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks - they'll all correct. No matter the fundamentals.
Here is the dollar index - The last time the Dollar index broke out of resistance was May 2018. I'll let you find out what happened to the price of Bitcoin price in the weeks that followed that date ;)
UnknownUnicorn15583116
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@without_worries, thanks for the info! I won't be selling any bitcoin for years, but if you're right I'll definitely be getting ready to load up the dip :)
without_worries
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@jkhaui, Buying the dip is a great strategy.
Bitcoin enters a new 2-year bear market at the end of this year, so you might want to think about taking some profits!